Hi all! Long time commenter, first time Fanposter. Anyway, not to perseverate on the past, but I was looking at Jayson Werth's splits for last year on Baseball Reference, and I noticed some pretty astonishing things that indicate, to me, that his approach was way off last year. While watching the games, and observing him in real-time, I thought Werth's problem was that he always put himself in the hole 0-1 by not swinging at the first pitch, giving up count leverage, and leading to him seeing more "pitcher's" pitches. What I was surprised to find out was that, even when he was ahead in the count, Werth struggled mightily.
So why did this happen? I have a couple of theories. First of all, lineup protection. I know sabermetricians say that lineup protection has a negligible effect on individual production (and please, correct me if a am misunderstanding sabermetricians; I very well might be), but if a pitcher falls behind on a hitter 2-0, that pitcher is less likely to give the batter something to hit if he isn't worried about the batter who hits behind him. To put that in less nonsensical terms, Jayson Werth likely saw better pitches 2-0 in the deeper lineup of the Phillies that he did in the Nats lineup, for which in April and May, Werth was the centerpiece. Another theory is that Werth took a flawed approach to the plate last year, never looking to "attack" when he was ahead in the count. Unfortunately, I don't had the data (or the psychological evaluation of Jayson Werth's mind) to back up these assertions. All I can say is, if the Nats lineup improves through maturation, and Jayson Werth takes a good hard look at his game film, I think we will see a very different Werth in 2012, one closer to the $126 million man the Nats paid for.
Source: Jayson Werth Career Batting Splits, Baseball-Reference.com
0 recs | 87 comments
very interesting
It’s very possible that it’s all just random, that he just had an off year. But it might not be.
I’m not sure if protection had much to do with it. He batted like 5-6 on the Phillies, right? So I’m not sure if anyone that great hit after him. By contrast, he hit #2 a lot on the Nats – followed by Zimmerman, or Morse. Maybe he was trying too hard, trying to be a leader, trying to live up to the contract. Or maybe he just had an off year.
That 2-0 stuff is interesting, though.
mk7676 - February 7, 2012
I have to wonder if some of it was psychological
Trying to justify his contract instead of just playing baseball. Who knows really, though.
d_c_guy - February 7, 2012
Rec'd
jbg2772 - February 8, 2012
I'm not sure about that.
From the first time he stepped up to bat in a Nats uniform, he seemed very confident. That was really the reason why I became such a big fan of his. I don’t know what was wrong with him this past year, but I can’t imagine him have another season like this past one. He won’t live up to his deal, which is something most people predicted when he signed with us, but he can still be a very valuable player.
Horcasitas4 - February 8, 2012
No big free agents live up to their deal anymore
Which is why some GM’s, like Friedman and Anthopolous, just refuse to even consider them. For everyone else it’s just weighing the small window of actual production against the other two-thirds of the contract when the player is just dead weight.
That being said, I think Werth will remain at least relatively productive throughout most of his contract because of the kind of player he is. Even though he’s big, he is athletic enough to age without becoming a liability defensively. Even in the worst year of his career, his walk rate stayed right near the top of the league so we know that’s something that sticks with him. Mentally, he was just screwed up last year. I just hope that early on this year, the new acquisitions can take the load off of him this year so it’s not like all eyes are on him
ZimforPrez - February 9, 2012
We got new acquisitions? Patrick, have you fallen asleep on the job?
Oh, you must mean Mike Cameron and Mark DeWhatshisname.
Either that or Gio and Edwin carry mighty big sticks for pitchers.
In any case, my crystal ball says Werth is going to hit .282 lead the team in OBP (I printed out a list of all the new fangled “advanced metrics” and their abbreviations and have them tape to my wrist like an NFL QB – you ought to think about doing this Whup – so now I can pretend to be an expert) and hit 26 homers (AKA – going yard!).
Take that Bill James (BTW – other than The Varieties of Religious Experience: A Study in Human Nature, your books are kind of boring)
PerryMason - February 9, 2012
As players? Yes Edwin and Gio are acquistions
Last year all eyes were on Werth because he was THE shiny new toy. Position was irrelevant, that’s still a good amount of pressure. Now since he’s been here it’s like he’s got less to prove than the guys that Nats fans have never seen before
ZimforPrez - February 9, 2012
Point taken
PerryMason - February 9, 2012
Thanks for the tip, Mase
I got mines already rigged up – team logo and all – and thinking that with my brains and your money, we could market them to MLB.
Whupass - February 12, 2012
Two thoughts on this
First, just a point to make about Werth always seeming to take the first pitch strike . More than anyone else, it at least SEEMED that those first-pitch strikes were really “meaty.” Meatier than your average first-pitch strike a pitcher may try to get, because the pitchers simply KNEW that Werth wasn’t going to swing. It’s an old saw that there’s always ONE good pitch that you get per at-bat. Werth gave it away too often.
Second point. To me anyway, Werth’s swing last year looked horrible – stiff, awkward, unnatural, overly mechanical, and slow. Now, this is to my very much non-expert eye, and I’d never really paid attention to his swing when he was a Phillie. So am I imagining the impression that his swing just looked really bad? I’d be very interested to hear what non-Nats-affiliated professional scouts were saying about his swing last year.
ricksnats - February 8, 2012
It's all Eckstein's fault
Still trying to figure out why he’s a Major League hitting coach….
RobBobS - February 8, 2012
Probably because he's got one golden egg in the batch
In Moarse the Hoarse of coarse. On the other hand, I’m a little skeptical as to how much of an impact ANY hitting coach at the major league level actually has. In his defense, he’s definitely seemed to be more involved than hitting coaches of other teams that I’ve followed. And by coaches I mean Lennie Harris
ZimforPrez - February 9, 2012
Let's use the word "teacher" - and granted, there are few good hitting teachers around
which does not mean that hitting can’t be taught – at any level of competition. Thing is, like most good teachers, nobody gets rich or famous for teaching hitting. As a manager, Ted Williams was also a tremendous hitting coach, and so was Ty Cobb – but not even these legenday HOFers are widely known as hitting coaches. It’s strictly a behind the scenes job; this does not mean that it can’t be done, and done well (see, The Ranger’s Rudy Jaramillo…has Mr. Average Fan ever heard of him? Not so much).
Eckstein? He must know somebody. Maybe he’s somebody’s nephew. Seems like a nice fella, but he’s a busher. Sure, played and coached some in college, and in the Expos farm system, which is how we got him. First time he ever put on a big-league uniform and stepped into a big-league dugout – couple years back, after the atrocious Lenny Harris – presto, he was the Washington Nationals hitting coach. Out of nowhere, more or less.
And what does he bring to the party? What finer point does he have to impart to any big-league hitter? He constantly cradles a big book under his arm – which made me suspicious first time I saw it, and continues to make me want to slap it outa’ his hands – and he could not possibly have the necessary experience and savvy for the job.
Unless, of course, he da’ one taught Mike Moarse the crane kick – but somehow I kinda doubt it.
Whupass - February 12, 2012
I constantly admire how any random internet poster knows the inside workings of organizations and MLB tactics
Eckstein is “a busher.” Therefore he must have gotten his job through nepotism, because he “could not possibly have the necessary experience and savvy for the job.”
That’s hilarious. Kevin Long, the hitting coach for the NY Yankees, has no more of a big league career than Eckstein. And yet he is regarded as one of the better hitting coaches in all of baseball. He has certainly helped (for example) Curtis Granderson; he is also given credit for work that he has done with Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter. Similarly, Morse gives Eckstein a lot of credit for Morse’s renaissance. But why take Morse’s word for it? We all know that Eckstein is a well-meaning incompetent, all steeped in book learnin’ and lacking that fine baseball appreciation that we on the internet consider our birthright.
Of course, Long has been hired by the Yankees, so the players he works with are pretty good. Yes, the Nats whiff a lot. That’s because their hitters, virtually to a man, are hitters that have always whiffed a lot. This includes when they were with other organizations, when the hitters were free of Eckstein’s supposedly pernicious influence. Essentially fans are mad at Eckstein for not spinning gold out of straw. Mike Rizzo and Davey Johnson seem to like the work that Eckstein does – and they are the ones who see what he does, day in and day out. Perhaps they see what Eckstein brings to the party, the finer points in physical mechanics and mental approaches that he imparts.
d_c_guy - February 12, 2012
Whatever he "brings to the party"
it ain’t helping.
RobBobS - February 12, 2012
Nope
and that’s the bottom line
Whupass - February 12, 2012
From one random internet poster to another
dc, I’ll thank you to address me with the same respect and courtesy that I have always used with you. If your feelings overwhelm you to the point where you can no longer do that, let’s step outside. Take it offline. See who can piss the furthest.
No, let’s not.
Listen, if you know something I don’t know about what you are pleased to call “the inside workings of organizations [presumably the Nats] and MLB tactics,” I’d like to hear it. Seriously. Hell, I read the same public remarks you and everybody else reads, but wtf – you on the inside track up in here? You personally acquainted with these gentlemen? Know something the rest of us internet swine don’t know?
I think not. You and I are both guessing. You’re guessing I’m wrong, as much as I’m guessing I’m right. Only difference between us is that I admit I’m guessing. There’s nothing factually wrong with anything I have stated, and my opinions are presented as opinions, based on factual evidence and the results that we have all seen. As I said, Eckstein seems like a really nice guy, and I mean that sincerely – but we haven’t seen the results.
Btw, what does Kevin Long have to do with this? He has done well in his brief tenure with the powerhouse Yankees, and shows potential. But he is not among the best hitting coaches in MLB. Before you say that he is, consider Rudy Jaramillo, without question the best hitting coach in MLB, and my idea of what coaches should be. You want to know about experience and savvy? Look up a real hitting coach, look up Jaramillo. Pick up some of his DVDs. Enlightening, and if you’re coaching – as am I – you’ll find them extremely useful.
Whupass - February 12, 2012
That's it, I'm posting it again
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8IGDluyWhA
I don’t know what it is with this thread and these cute little internet hissyfights.
And Whupass, no way you claimed to be “just guessing” in your first post. Some consistency, please!
mk7676 - February 13, 2012
First off, count me out of any pissing contests, at my age I consider it an accomplishment when I can manage piss downhill into a toilet. That being said, for the most part I tend to agree with DCGuy. The only thing that I have to go on regarding the abilities or lack thereof of Rick Eckstein as a hitting coach is what I hear through media. On that front, I don’t recall ever hearing anything negative (which I understand may just be the result of not wanting to badmouth someone they like on a personal level) while At the same time I do recollect hearing on many occasions players sing his praises. More importantly, what I go on is by what I hear from Rizzo and Davey, both of whom have seen a lot of hitting coaches come and go. Everything I hear from them regarding Eckstein as I recollect is positive and the mere fact that Eckstein still has a job with the Nationals to me speaks volumes. It would so easy to fire a hitting coach, so if he is so awful, why is he still hear?
PerryMason - February 13, 2012
I meant to write that I don’t recall hearing anything negative from the players…
PerryMason - February 13, 2012
I get that the players like him
But it’s not really his job to be liked. His job is to help players get better with the bat, and with only one notable exception, everyone on the team seemed to get worse last year. Those are the results I’m looking at. So, maybe NO hitting coach could ever turn LaRoche into a star (yeah, I know, blah blah blah he was injured — poppycock), or could ever keep Werth producing at his Philly levels, or could help Desmond change his approach and to effectively shorten his swing, or could help Espinosa close some of those ginormous holes in his swing and prepare for the league figuring them all out, or could help Ankiel do ANYTHING with a bat. But how would we know? It seems like everyone’s perfectly satisfied with the Eck’s work, but maybe, just maybe, there are better options available. That’s my guess anyway.
RobBobS - February 13, 2012
I am not an Eckstein fan, I just don't automatically assume that he is incompetent
What got my goat was the dismissive assessment of Eckstein as a “busher” who “must know somebody” because he “could not possibly have the necessary experience and savvy for the job.” I reacted too strongly (the word “hilarious” was unnecessary, among other things) and I do apologize for the tone, though not the content.
I certainly get the frustration, but when I step back and take a deep breath a number of possible alternatives to the prevailing wisdom emerge. I tend to question prevailing wisdom, but I don’t automatically assume it’s wrong either. I can’t speak for anyone else, but I don’t know whether I am perfectly satisfied with the Eck’s work, because it takes place out of my sight. I do know I’m not happy with the Nationals’ offensive production, but I don’t know how much of that to lay at Eckstein’s feet. For all we know Eckstein’s work may be all that is keeping the Nationals from falling to Seattle-like levels of offense. Unlikely, but possible. I would understand if the Nationals made a change at hitting coach if they found someone they thought was better – but who is that going to be? Specifically? I’m willing to listen to alternatives
d_c_guy - February 13, 2012
A thoroughly fair complaint
Back when I used to go to NY Rangers forums, there was a lot of that nonsense. Whenever an expensive player had an off game, it was obviously because they didn’t care, and “went home and smoked cigars with (GM) Sather, laughing about how they fooled everyone”. No exaggeration. I’m very happy here, as I haven’t seen any of that since Whupass’ last comment. (BTW I’m still a Ranger fan, I just can’t stand other Ranger fans so I don’t go to forums anymore lol)
mk7676 - February 13, 2012
I don’t particularly care if they keep Eckstein or not, all I’m saying is that if he’s awful as you and your buddy Whupass claim him to be don’t you think that Davey (especially Davey) and Rizzo would have sent him packing?
PerryMason - February 13, 2012
I have no idea why they keep him
…and I won’t speculate on it either.
If I were king for a season, I’d give Eck a couple of months of the season. If 2012 starts like 2011, and players perform uniformly below their expectations, then I get rid of him. Even if he’s had no actual negative effect, sometimes the fact that a coach has been fired due to a team’s poor performance is enough to motivate the team to do better. They certainly couldn’t do much worse.
“My buddy Whupass”? That’s a new one.
RobBobS - February 13, 2012
I thought bothyou and Whupass would get a kick out of that
PerryMason - February 13, 2012 via mobile
You’re a riot, Alice – a regular riot.
Whupass - February 13, 2012
I can't imagine they will keep Eckstein much longer
OK, I shouldn’a called Rick Eckstein a busher. He seems like a fine, upstanding young man. Seriously. I understand that he’s a man of faith, and a man of family. If I met him, I’d probably like him.
But when it comes to coaching, it ain’t about that; it’s about the bottom line, the numbers – and our offensive numbers are not pretty. For two seasons now, we’ve been near the bottom in batting and runs scored, and near the top in strikeout rate. Our situational hitting has been dreadful, and we have consistently made even bad pitchers look good.
I say it’s fair to call out the hitting coach.
Good things don’t just happen: good hitting any more than good pitching (see, Steve McCatty), and coaching is everything, at all levels of play.
Sure, Rizzo and Davey say they like Eckstein – and to my surprise, they retained him – but they cannot possibly like the results they’ve been seeing.
No inside information is needed here. If we start out a third consecutive season with our offense still in this funk, something will have to give.
Whupass - February 13, 2012
I think part of the swing problem was that he kept changing it throughout the season, and the changes were usually drastic. The only time for drastic changes is in the offseason when you have time for a lot of reps, in-season only minor tweaks should be made because when the hitter starts thinking too much about his swing they become distracted from the actual at bat. And the only person who could ever really pull that off was Cal Ripken, and he’s in the Hall nowadays.
RossingtonCollins - February 8, 2012
This is one reason why sabermetrics is a little BS in my opinion, anyone who’s ever played competitive ball will tell you that having great hitters around you helps a great deal. Seriously, Werth came from a lineup that had Victorino, Utley, Rollins, and Howard, pitchers were just playing a game of pick your poison. And Werth then shuttles to a lineup last year that had a very inconsistent Desmond, a high strike-out Espinosa, Zim had limited action, and Morse was the only fear in the line-up day in day out. Of course there was going to be a drop-off… But I didn’t think it would be THAT drastic.
RossingtonCollins - February 8, 2012
But if that were actually true, then we’d see players going to better lineups tending to overperform expectations and players going to worse lineups tending to underperform expectations. We’d see a tendency for players hitting better than usual with better players hitting behind them. We’d see a tendency for players hitting worse than usual with worse players hitting behind them. Nobody has found any such tendency of any significance.
“Anyone who’s ______ can tell you blank” is a terrible argument. Dale Murphy used to swear that he hit better with Bob Horner hitting behind him, but he actually didn’t. Anybody who practiced medicine in 1800 could also tell you that leeching provided significant therapeutic benefits for a wide range of ailments. It didn’t.
Baseball analysis, just like most mature fields of study, has moved past its initial romanticism. Evidence trumps belief, every time.
D.Szymborski - February 9, 2012
Did you ever play baseball past T-ball?
RossingtonCollins - February 9, 2012
Yes.
We’re talking about the Major League level, not lower levels of play. High School baseball is to Major League Baseball as playing with GI Joes is to flying an F-15.
From your reply, shall I assume that you don’t have any actual evidence to present on the matter? Evidence trumps belief.
D.Szymborski - February 9, 2012
Nope, just in my opinion I’ve found that everyone who gets really into these sabermetrics are the ones who couldn’t cut it on the ball field, so they decide to throw some crazy algorithms into stats and call it a science. I’m happy with my regular stats, they tell me all I need to know about production. And I’ve got an eye for ball players too, but thats REALLY subjective so I’m sure you don’t put any stock into managers who can read a ball player without looking at stats at all.
RossingtonCollins - February 9, 2012
You’re entitled to your own opinion, not your own facts.
I’m happy with my regular stats, they tell me all I need to know about production.Which I guess is your right. One of the most valuable freedoms is the right to be stupid. For instance, if you have a heart attack someday, you’re perfectly free to treat it with magnets and 19th century mercury-based medicine.
And I’ve got an eye for ball players too, but thats REALLY subjective so I’m sure you don’t put any stock into managers who can read a ball player without looking at stats at all.Even a backwards, incompetent front office like the Orioles doesn’t make decisions like this anyway. I’d invite you to the 21st century, but you haven’t quite caught the 20th yet.
D.Szymborski - February 9, 2012
Haha, no need for personal attacks here man. I’m not saying that I run a front office or anything so what does that comment about the O’s have to do with anything? But if you insist on being ridiculous, why do you think
this is an effective insult? Just because I want to watch Baseball the way I want doesn’t make me incompetent.RossingtonCollins - February 9, 2012
You’re perfectly entitled to watch and enjoy baseball in any way you desire.
What you’re not entitled is to make assertions about fact that you are unable to back up in an way and not get called out on it.
D.Szymborski - February 9, 2012
Thats better. But if I’m trying to find where I made a specific assertion of fact.. If you are referring to this:
I stand by that, Pujols wouldn’t be as successful in say the PIrates lineup, but I’m not saying that he wouldn’t be productive. And also I didn’t say that sabermetrics is complete shit and shouldn’t be looked at, I like looking at BABIP (I think thats the abbr.) FIP and OPS. Those to me are the most legitimate. Honestly man don’t come on to a board that you don’t normally post on and call people out with personal attacks, starting a constructive argument is great but once it just turns into a pissing match you kind of lose your credibility.RossingtonCollins - February 9, 2012
You post:
And then complain about personal attacks and starting a constructive argument?
Wow. Just. Wow.
D.Szymborski - February 9, 2012
What? This honestly makes no sense to me, please tell me how that is an attack against you in any way. I had never heard of you in my life before I posted that, that was just my opinion, I didn’t say you had to agree with it or even consider it. Yes granted I don’t really know much at all about the whole scheme of sabermetrics, but why is that a problem? Sorry if you think I’m stupid for stating my opinion without having done any real research other than an eye-test. I said that I think lineup protection has an impact on hitters I don’t see why that is such a travesty.
RossingtonCollins - February 9, 2012
You two are too cute
But my favorite part was when Brother Rossington accused Brother Szymborski of personal attacks after claiming his level of baseball analysis suggests he hasn’t played past T-Ball.
mk7676 - February 9, 2012
Nah you read it wrong, understandable though because its just typed words. I meant it in terms of has he felt what its like to be protected by other good hitters and not be the only one capable of doing damage in a lineup. I hope he didn’t think I was questioning his baseball knowledge because thats obviously not the case because he contributes to three different sites and whatnot. And thats not sarcasm.
RossingtonCollins - February 9, 2012
Ok, you said “anyone who’s ever played baseball can tell you” protection matters, then he answered that statistically protection doesn’t matter and derided you for your “anyone who’s ever…” assertion, then you answered “have you ever played beyond T-ball.”
Yes, it’s very possible I read your intent wrong because it is just typed words. But I can promise you that Brother Smyzborski, myself, and many others all thought you were implying that since he hasn’t played advanced ball he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Very possible that’s the wrong interpretation.
But I stand by my original assertion:
you two are just tooooooo cute!
mk7676 - February 9, 2012
If by ‘cute’ you mean because there is an argument going on over the internet, I hate that just as much as anyone else because its too easy to hide behind your keyboard. I’d just never really been in one.
RossingtonCollins - February 9, 2012
It's like watching
Bill James vs. Murray Chass, except I can’t in all conscience equate anyone with Murray Chass.
jbg2772 - February 9, 2012
And I invite you to learn some manners. Because while I generally agree with you that advanced statistics are useful, you do greater harm to sabermetrics by being a first-rate jerk. You preach the supremacy of evidence, yet engage in ad hominem attacks, which I believe is the lowest form of argument.
Futhermore, while data sets are factual representations of what resulted, they are not a complete picture. For example, we know that the pitch was called a ball, but not whether the pitcher intended for it to be one (IBB aside). And the statistics we draw from these data sets often include a number causal interferences that need to be verified. After all, batting averages are a statistic, and were created with a certain goal and assumptions in mind. And batting averages are still useful skill to determine contact rates, when used in conjunction with other stats. The same is true for OBP and FIP.
Additionally, could you supply your own data set that suggests that star players that move to weaker line-ups generally don’t suffer from production? I would note the following article from Tom Tango, states that you do see higher walk and SO rates for a protected hitter. However, he also notes that once in play, there is no significant change in production according to wOBA. More importantly though, Tango concedes that the available evidence does not contain acurate pitch location needed to do the most effective analysis regarding pitching approaches affecting batters contact. I would further state that it seems like a reasonable assumption that certain players are significantly better about hitting outside the strike zone. I don’t have any evidence on this, but I am assuming that you could generate some guess it by reviewing O-Contact%. The stat does not tell you how “good” the contact would be though. As I understand O-Contact% foul balls hit off pitches outside the strike zone would still be scored the same as HR’s hit off pitches outside the strike zone. At any rate, I think individual factors of a hitter would need to be considered before saying that generally pitching outside the zone is not a productive strategy.
chubias - February 9, 2012
And again, this is the original post.
More importantly though, Tango concedes that the available evidence does not contain acurate pitch location needed to do the most effective analysis regarding pitching approaches affecting batters contact.Except that’s not the issue. The null hypothesis is that a special effect does not exist (and Tango’s research, which I’m familiar with, does not assert that it does, either) The original poster asserted it, to the extent of blaming at least a large part of Werth’s season on the change in lineup. That’s bunk.
D.Szymborski - February 9, 2012
I’m not really sure why you thinking quoting RossingtonCollins post
is a response to you someone telling you that calling him stupid is impolite. He disagrees with sabermetrics, because his expierence tells him somthing different. He states that others with a similar expierence will agree with him. While these aren’t the arguments that I would make, they are hardly offensive. On the otherhand, your statements were.
This is not ok. I’m not saying that we don’t rib each other about being stat geeks or old-school dudes, but there is a line between playful teasing between friends on an internet site and directly attacking someone.
Moving on from that, I don’t really understand your response to my statements about Tango. Here is Tango’s opening statement from the link above:
I read the italicized portion of this statement as to imply that Tango believes that some pitchers might be capable of “pitching around” a player without an IBB, by throwing throwing junk and hoping the hitter chases it, but the Tango didn’t have the data to conduct that analysis.
However, I would like to read you evidence that Werth moving from the Phillies line-up to the Nationals had no special relationship with his declining performance. After all, you have gone to such great lenghts to say that evidence trumps believe, so I would like to see your evidence. Plus, I think it would be an interesting read.
chubias - February 9, 2012
It would be hard to produce evidence that the move did NOT have an effect
Proving a null hypothesis is a tricky issue.
RobBobS - February 9, 2012
I'm totally staying out of this
as a (I hope mostly former) jerk, I think that’s best.
William.Hatheway - February 9, 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8IGDluyWhA
Going with my comment above….
mk7676 - February 9, 2012
Way to go Chubias! Love the way you stand up for us “qualitative” types!
sullyzz - February 10, 2012
BACK to the article
I have to say that pretty much everyone, author of the article included, has good points. I think this is a dynamic issue, or at least so extreme a change that it’s unlikely only one factor made it happen (e.g. I’d point out, as is my manner, that his BABIP was about 40 points lower, but then it could have been that he was psyched out, so he swung at crap, which resulted in poor babip). Really hard to say, but even without a great rationale, I’m expecting a good bit of bounce-back (even though he’s on the wrong side of 30)
William.Hatheway - February 9, 2012
Regression
He’ll be better. Adam Dunn will be better. That’s where the smart money lies.
RobBobS - February 9, 2012
Actually, I did just see some facts contradict with some of the above (not the regression bit, Rob)
He swung his usual amount below average both in and out of the zone. So that isn’t it. Basically, he didn’t chase more than usual, and while he didn’t swing enough at pitches in the zone it turns out he never has. The only confirmation was that their were many more first pitch strikes, so there’s that.
William.Hatheway - February 9, 2012
Agreed.
My only worry about Dunn is that he was right all along (until he chased the money) to avoid DH and that not playing in the field really screws with his hitting. But yeah, he can’t hit, what, just two lefty pitches or something?
William.Hatheway - February 9, 2012
Of course he'll get better
Damn hard to get any worse. I mean, he broke a 100 year-old record last year. Tough act to follow.
Whupass - February 12, 2012
Just curious. What record is that?
I knew he as bad. But I thought Dunn would have broken all the horribad records last year
ZimforPrez - February 12, 2012
Lowest single-season BA by any player qualified for a batting title since 1910.
and as Casey used to say, “You can look it up.”
Whupass - February 12, 2012
Except,
he didn’t qualify (496 PAs). So he didn’t get the “record”.
RobBobS - February 12, 2012
Maybe he qualified, and maybe he didn't - but for once, he did alright
http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/28/keeping-score-adam-dunns-historically-bad-season/
Whupass - February 13, 2012
This link doesn't work.
RobBobS - February 13, 2012
Well...
Thank you all for the lively discussion. Truth is, no one knows for certain what caused Werth’s slump, and I was just trying to take my best guess at it. As for the issue of “lineup protection,” I can think of some logical reasons why it would exist, but Mr. Szymborski is right, there is little to no statistical evidence to support it. As always, even when it gets a little heated, the discussion on this site is the best in the Natsmosphere (and the most entertaining…)
Nationalpastime9 - February 9, 2012
I’m actually a pretty decent communicator, generally.
An appeal to authority is one thing that’s guaranteed to push a button with me. That was something we had to deal with regularly when active sabermetrics was mostly limited to duffs posting on usenet 10-20 years ago (Law, Kahrl, McCracken, Forman, Cameron, Huckabay, Davenport, Woolner, Lahman, myself, etc) and it reminds me of the bad old days, before we became respectable.
D.Szymborski - February 9, 2012
As I was saying...
Go to bed!
PerryMason - February 9, 2012
This was one of the best games of "I know you are, but what am I" in a long time
I suggest everyone declare victory and go home – PLEASE!
PerryMason - February 9, 2012
Hahahahahahahahaha
RossingtonCollins - February 9, 2012
Ok Sabermaticians.......
I’ll concede the stats stuff to my geek friends….how do you guys see the effects of Werth being moved all over the lineup? He batted in every every position but number 7 and 8 (but only #9 twice, which was probably in a pinch situation). Seems the Riddler tested him all over the place to fill the voids left by injured players. He was atrocious at #1 and #2, better at #5, and really good at #4 (although #4 was a small sample this past season). Over the past three seasons, he has illustrated his best numbers at #5, which overwhelmingly make up the majority of his total ABs. In fact, most of his ABs outside of #5, were with the Nats last year. Would it have made any difference whatsoever, if he had stayed at #5 all season? BTW…it also seems, from the past three seasons, that he is sort of a late bloomer, having done better in second half than first….so, did being moved around so much by Riggleman REALLY have a negative impact? Just thoughts to invoke some discussion.
sullyzz - February 10, 2012
I think Riggler's lineup juggling affected Werth, especially Desmond, and probably everyone else to a degree...
players like roles…
cat daddy3000 - February 10, 2012
I think this point is right on the money.
Jeff T - February 11, 2012
Yup
I hollered it last year ’til I was blue in the face.
Whupass - February 12, 2012
You looking for Ali Frazier 2?
Rossington Szymborski -the REMATCH – this time there’ll be blood!
ricksnats - February 10, 2012
Ward v Gotti I.
and much as I hate to add anything to such a fine pissing-contest, I will say this from a former catcher, all my playing days: when any batter walked up to the plate, I damn sure took a squint at the on-deck circle before deciding how we’d pitch him. It matters. A lot.
Whupass - February 12, 2012
So do I win then?
RossingtonCollins - February 13, 2012
For once I have chosen to remain a neutral alpine nation
But yeah, I agree with you.
Whupass - February 13, 2012
Seems more like Wepner vs. LeDoux.
Both of yous seem to lead with your chin.
PerryMason - February 13, 2012
Chuck "The Bleeder" Wepner v Scott LeDoux?
I wasn’t aware that them two ever tangled. Musta’ been a thing of great beauty, to say the least.
Damn sad endings for both old brawlers. I think Chuck got shot to death in a parking lot scrap outside his bar in Bayonne, and Scott died from ALS. Tough way to go, and Scott was always a great guy. RIP.
Whupass - February 14, 2012
No, those two never met, so to speak. Nor, to my knowledge, have Rossington/Szymborski ever met. I just thought it was a better analogy (for old time’s sake), given the exchange.
PerryMason - February 14, 2012
Never even heard of him before the duel started.
RossingtonCollins - February 15, 2012
Small surprise. You young’uns never heard’a anybody.
Whupass - February 15, 2012
Wuts wid the doubles?
Somebody’s out to get me.
Whupass - February 12, 2012
The subject lines all doubled, and the comments all got kicked. WTF, over?
Whupass - February 12, 2012
Hmmm - double vision, then, five hours later, it's "cleared up"
Might want to lay off the scotch, there, Whup!
Jes’ kiddin’.
ricksnats - February 13, 2012
yeah huh?
Maybe change my brand. The sh*t that comes in them plastic bottles has sullied my mind.
Whupass - February 14, 2012
Yeah, but those plastic bottles don't break when you drop them.
…which just might happen if you’ve been drinking from it.
ricksnats - February 15, 2012
….discreetly wrapped in a paper bag
Whupass - February 15, 2012
Never mind
Either somebody fixed it or visions of vampires were clouding my brain yet again. Hard to say which.
Whupass - February 12, 2012
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