Patrick Smith - Getty Images
8 months ago: WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 24: Ian Desmond #6 of the Washington Nationals reacts after striking out in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Nationals Park on September 24, 2011 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
It's not just Ian Desmond who has to cut down on the K's in 2012, and it's not just the strikeouts the Nats' shortstop has to limit. Desmond's 139 K's were the most by a shortstop in 2011 and combined with Jayson Werth's 160 (2nd amongst RF in MLB), Danny Espinosa's 166 (1st amongst MLB 2B), Michael Morse's 126 (a disappointing 7th league-wide amongst 1B) as Nats' Skipper Davey Johnson put it this winter,"[We] struck out too much, tried to do too much, didn't make pitchers throw the ball in the strike zone, didn't hit the fastball as well as we should have, a mountain of things, a few things defensively, but I think we definitely can get there and a good Spring Training and a good start..."
The Nationals, as a team, led the majors in K's. K's with men on base. K's with men in scoring position.
The Nationals are counting on the 26-year-old Desmond being able to cut down on the strikeouts, get on base more often as the leadoff hitter and limit the errors at short. The '04 3rd Round pick committed 11 fewer errors in '11 than his league-leading 34 in 146 games at short in 2010, managing to cut the throwing errors down from 13 to 4 in his second full season in the Nationals' infield, but his 23 total errors were still the second-most by a shortstop in the NL though, and his 19 fielding errors were tied for the league-lead with the Texas Rangers' Elvis Andrus. Desmond's -5.5 UZR/150 at short was the third-lowest in the NL amongst shortstops with at least 1000.0 innings at the position last season.
Desmond's middle infield partner, Danny Espinosa, committed 14 errors on the season, 10 fielding, 4 throwing, the second-highest total among NL second basemen behind both Dan Uggla and Rickie Weeks with 15 E's. Espinosa's +0.9 UZR/150 was the 12th best in baseball amongst qualified second basemen. Espinosa, in his first full season (or at least the first half of it), produced at the plate though, hitting the second-most HR's on the team, driving in the second-most runs, finish with the fourth-highest wRC+ (104 to Morse's team-leading 147 wRC+ and Desmond's 80 wRC+) and he finished his first full MLB season above Morse at +3.5 fWAR on the year as Nats' most valuable fWAR player.
Desmond's offensive numbers, however, were about what he produced in his first full season in 2010 but down from .269/308/.392 with 27 doubles and 10 HR's to .253/.298/.358 with 27 and eight. He also K'd 30 more times (139 K's) in 639 PA's than he had in 609 PA's in 2010 (109 K's). Desmond really salvaged what was a dismal offensive year in the last two months of the season, putting together a .295/.329/.424 line with 12 of his 27 doubles and five of his eight HR's on the year coming in the final 54 games. The offensive resurgence coincided (at least partially) with a move to the top of the order from August 17th on, with Desmond posting a .305/.342/.437 slash after Davey Johnson placed him back atop the order.
The Nationals are hoping that trend continues, since they failed to find the center fielder/leadoff man they were said to be looking for this winter and as of now (before Spring Training's even started) plan to go with Desmond as the leadoff man again to start the 2012 season. Desmond started the 2011 season as the Nationals' leadoff man, going 9 for 50 with two walks and 12 K's before he was moved out of the top spot in the order. Desmond has a .289/.373/.489 line in 51 career PA's as the first batter of a game, a .278/.314/.405 line overall when batting first.
Bill James' projections have the third-year infielder putting up a .268/.317/.394 line in 2012 with 28 doubles and 10 HR's. Desmond told MLB.com's Bill Ladson he's confident he can produce as the Nationals' leadoff hitter. Desmond's K rate was up last year (from 19.0 K% to 21.8%), his power was down (.124 ISO to .104 in 2011), he cut down on the errors but still made too many. Nats' skipper Davey Johnson seemed to have inspired confidence in his shortstop late last season when he put him back at the top of the order, and he liked what he saw, telling reporters, "Desi's starting to look like what I think Desi should look like." Have Nationals fans seen the best Ian Desmond he can be? Can he last as the Nationals' leadoff man this time around? Are there any better options on the roster?
0 recs | 77 comments
Are there any better options on the roster?
A switch-hitter and minor league gold glover named Stephen Lombardozzi.
plebescite - February 18, 2012
Never heard of him.
Patrick Reddington - February 18, 2012
but hey, if he can do better than last year's minor league stars
by which I mean Bixler and Lombardozzi, he would be a great addition to the Nats roster
dc Roach - February 18, 2012
I hope the Lombardozzi fanclub is right...
And he’s good enough to force Desmond out and Espinosa over to short, that would be great for the Nationals. I haven’t seen him enough to say and don’t trust the Double and Triple-A numbers to translate.
Patrick Reddington - February 18, 2012
HA
I don’t know if I am convinced that Lombardozzi is the answer than am I concerned that we are relying on a Desmond too much as the answer. I am kind of split between the two.
As I have said on this website a million times, my concern for desmond is his lack of production offensively and defensively. Espinosa struggles at the plate but makes up for it in the field. Lombardozzi clearly has a + glove. If he can hit for avg….well?
Bsullivan - February 18, 2012
Espinosa, as a 2B, didn't struggle at the plate
he was top-ten in MLB at the position
William.Hatheway - February 18, 2012
me too
I don’t trust the numbers to translate either, but Espinosa/Lombardozzi almost has to be better defensively. So the only reason to keep sending Desmond out there would be if he could make up for it with the bat.
NatsFaninBama - February 18, 2012
Desi has better range and a stronger arm than Espinosa.
Espinosa has better range and a stronger arm than Lombardozi. GG in the minors don’t mean a thing. I trust Desmond to continue to cut down on his errors, and his defensive potential is huge.
Doncosmic - February 19, 2012
Good-hitting shortstops are so damn rare
ye’ just don’t worry about it. Anything north of .250 is gravy, and Desi will get that for you. I likes me some Desi, but Espy – our other shortstop – is the real gem of our MI. His sophomore season will be sensational. Just you wait.
Whupass - February 19, 2012
There's a reason for that
It’s because teams prioritize a good fielder at SS. Desmond isn’t a good defensive shortstop. He isn’t even a league average shortstop… he’s a defensive liability. You can talk about defensive potential all you want, but he’s 26… at some point you have to produce on potential.
Nobody’s knocking Espinosa. He gets the job done.
NatsFaninBama - February 19, 2012
I think you are wrong.
I think Desi is at least as good as league average as a defensive shortstop. He has great range and a cannon arm. He makes a very good DP combo with Espi.
Desi gets way too much criticism around here, and Espi gets way too much leeway, IMO.
RobBobS - February 19, 2012
I am just using statistical analysis and information provided by baseball analysts etc. who largely agree he is a subpar ss
Bsullivan - February 19, 2012
the potential is there
Like I said, you can talk about potential all you want, but at a certain point you need production. I’m not going to argue that he’s got the range and the arm to be a + defensive shortstop. But he boots balls and makes errant throws. By any statistical measure, he’s a below average defensive SS based on what he’s done on the field.
NatsFaninBama - February 19, 2012
You have to go with potential in a position like this
Shortstops aren’t easy to find. So if you have a guy like Desi who has probably the best defensive tools on the team, you work with that. And statistical measures don’t sum everything up all the time. Desmond would make a bunch of errors over the span of two series, and then go months without making a single defensive mistake. Statistically, there wasn’t a big improvement last year from him, but just from watching him you could just tell how much he matured
ZimforPrez - February 19, 2012
Errant throws?
He made four throwing errors last year. His arm is strong and accurate.
RobBobS - February 19, 2012
Yup, and there's no stat for bad throws not attempted
but this was probably his biggest area of improvement over 2010. Rookie season, he made rookie mistakes, and he’d frequently let fly when he it was best to hold the ball. Agree with ZimforPrez, stats are useful, but cannot tell the full tale.
Whupass - February 19, 2012
One more thing
By any statistical measure…
Desmond was second in the league in assists and third in putouts among shortstops. Speaks to range and durability.
RobBobS - February 19, 2012
or luck
Bsullivan - February 19, 2012
Hardly.
He was first in putouts and fourth in assists in 2010. That’s not luck.
RobBobS - February 19, 2012
That's incorrect
Bsullivan - February 19, 2012
Rob, I'll yield and say Desi deserves the respect of a true MLB SS
unlike what I did in the past, but why can’t you respect Espi too? He does the job defensively, and was better than average (significantly, actually, for a 2B) offensively, including a September against better than average pitching (despite all the cup-of-coffee call-ups). He’s hardly great, but you should be very happy he is a National.
William.Hatheway - February 19, 2012
I like Espi.
I think he’s got great potential, but I think he’s displayed holes in his game that are of great concern if he is not able to resolve them. When last we saw him play, he had not resolved them, and it’s not obvious or apparent that he will resolve them. I’m not willing to just assume he will end up being a great player, but it seems to me that many here have made up their minds that way.
My general statement is that I’m not willing to give up on EITHER player at this point, nor am I willing to hand the keys of a position to either player. I have hope that the two be able to resolve ALL their problems this year and become the best ML DP combo. They certainly have that potential, but neither one is there yet.
RobBobS - February 20, 2012
I assume the “the holes in his game” you are referring to have to do with hitting. From what I’ve observed, Espinoza is one of the best defensive 2nd basemen in the league. And as far as hitting goes, I think his upside is much greater than Desi’s.
I admire your stubborn defense of Desmond. He does have great range and a great arm, but unfortunately, as I’ve said before, those hands, (and possibly judgement) are probably what will keep him out of the conversation regarding who are currently the best defensive SS’s in the league. Hitting? Maybe Davey can straighten him out, if not, I think he’ll go down as an average SS at best.
PerryMason - February 20, 2012
Desmond
If you take Put outs per inning and Assists per inning he is ranked 10th and 7th respectively.
But I don’t see where you got your information. Using fangraphs he isn’t second in assists or thirds in putouts. and in 2010 he was 4th in putouts and 12th in assists.
Coming from a team that has one of the lowest strike out rates in the MLB…
If I recall you use B-R. But doesn’t score well on any of their analysis either nor does the putouts/assists measure you speak of exist.
Am I missing something.
Bsullivan - February 19, 2012
He did however
Finish first and third in Errors.
Bsullivan - February 19, 2012
Realistically
He is Rick ankiel at shortstop. Maybe an exciting mix at cf sometimes, and a similar offensive split. I don’t see anyone rushing to ankiels aid.
Bsullivan - February 19, 2012
I'm using the mlb.com site for these stats
And National League shortstops as the sample. I am absolutely certain of the results as I have claimed them assuming MLB knows their own stats..
RobBobS - February 20, 2012
What do you mean it's not correct.
Back up your statements.
RobBobS - February 20, 2012
i did
Bsullivan - February 20, 2012
So your argument is based off of NL only shortstops
So that basically whittles it down to 7 players or so to really have a conversation because thats really the only number of people who were in the realm of innings. so 3rd in putouts among 7 players. Assists looks like it almost exactly correlates to games played.
Desmond has potential, and we can try and find ways to prove statistically that he can be above avg. Its a reach. I admire your love for the guy, I hope he becomes and all-star.
Bsullivan - February 20, 2012
You’re saying that on a per inning bases, Desmond does not show all great compared to other SS’s (Reyes for example who spent a lot of time on the DL); is that correct?
PerryMason - February 20, 2012
The original statement was
“by any statistical measure, Desmond is a below-average defensive SS”.
Even taking into account whatever you can to try to make the statistics I demonstrated less impressive, Desmond’s range factor is STILL better than average compared to other NL shortstops.
RobBobS - February 20, 2012
oops
Should have said any GOOD statistical measure. Assists and putouts aren’t good statistical measures… they fall right in line with the number of chances he got.
I’ll give you that his raw numbers of assists and putouts speak to durability. That’s an important quality in a shortstop.
The good statistical measures are UZR and DRS, and Desmond is below average on both (though he’s much closer to average in DRS).
NatsFaninBama - February 20, 2012
You are right that the metrics aren't the best
but I don’t trust UZR very much, and middle infielders make their chances more than other positions.
RobBobS - February 20, 2012
Astros got a hustlin' gem in Bix!
Patrick Reddington - February 18, 2012
Bix may pan out yet
Green as the outfield grass, and not a fit here – but he’s a good kid, and comports himself well. I wish him the best.
Whupass - February 19, 2012
Pretty old for a kid.
At some point, it’s too late. For Bixler that point was last season.
rarumberger - February 19, 2012 via Android app
Your initial point is actually a good frame of reference in terms of why a potential MLB caliber player may not fit in a particular lineup
The Nats strike out way to much. Even if they build a lot of talent around this club, their ability to be completely shutdown offensively will haunt the team. I’d love for someone to figure out how many games they k’d 10+ times.
I just hate watching an avg. pitcher mow down this lineup. Dillon Gee anyone?
Something has to give.
Bsullivan - February 18, 2012
Just looked it up...the answer is 47 times.
47 times.
Bsullivan - February 18, 2012
Whereas the Texas Rangers struck out 10 or more times, only in 13 games.
I guess the Pitcher adds a bunch of K’s. But man this hurts.
Bsullivan - February 18, 2012
47? Egads.
Patrick Reddington - February 18, 2012
Right and not surprisingly they went 18-29 in those games
10 k’s = 12
11 k’s = 16
12 k’s = 6
13 k’s = 6
14 k’s = 1
15 ks’ = 2
17 k’s = 3
19 k’s = 1
Bsullivan - February 18, 2012
At least that 19 K game was 14.0 innings...
Or else that would be awful.Patrick Reddington - February 18, 2012
Wonder what teams had the lowest K total per 9.
RoscoeNats - February 18, 2012
ready for this?
Texas and S. Louis. Don’t know if that’s per 9 or not, but still.
mk7676 - February 18, 2012
So what have we learned through all this K talk?
Put the ball in play, good things are more likely to happen if you don’t leave the bat on your shoulder.
RossingtonCollins - February 18, 2012
I'm glad Pudge isn't still on the team to hear that.
Also I have no problem with the church of the three true outcomes, guys who get walks are more than welcome to K often as well. You know who put the ball in play a ton? Christian Guzman.
Doncosmic - February 19, 2012
For God’s sake, I know you want to prove a point, but please do not invoke the name of Christian Guzman – just when I was starting to do something about my drinking problem.
Whupass - February 19, 2012
Completely understood, I apologize.
Doncosmic - February 19, 2012
Nah man, you gots to watch them first two pitches
It’s called patience. Patience. Whole idea is to tire the opposing pitcher. He gets plumb exhausted from striking us out, see. Then, when he’s good and tired – why, we spring something on hizzass. Don’t ax me what, because there’s only 27 outs, but ne’mind! It’s top secret, I guess. So no questions. Just take the first two.
Haven’t you heard? Get with it, man.
Whupass - February 19, 2012
The ideal player is actually Youkilis
Who works the count. He does strike out a lot but forces high counts and walks.
The Nationals on the other hand are leading the league in strike outs and 22nd in walks. So clearly they aren’t following the best approach at the plate.
2002 Oakland Athletics struke 10 or more times 16 times. Just saying.
Bsullivan - February 19, 2012
James' .268/.314/.394 projection
That’s not far from where I had Desi, at .270/.320/.430, though obviously I credit him with significantly more power. In any case if he does OK with the glove this year (soften up those hands a bit, his range is plenty good) and meets James’ projections then he SHOULD meet the bsullivan seal of approval since that would make him essentially league average.
RobBobS - February 19, 2012
His range is better than plenty good, especially when considering the equally obscene range of those on either side of him.
Doncosmic - February 19, 2012
You may be right
but I say that because you’ve seen Desi a lot, not because of James’ projections, which are notoriously optimistic…
William.Hatheway - February 19, 2012
We’ll see about whether or not he will be able to soften those hands up a bit, but I doubt he will.
You either got’um or you don’t and Desi don’t got’um.
PerryMason - February 19, 2012
You may be right,
but I hope not.
RobBobS - February 19, 2012
ha
Would certainly make a league avg hitter for shortstop.
But those numbers signify and change in direction for our leadoff man. Pretending for a moment that Harper makes the roster, that’s our best move at leadoff. That’s not great.
Bsullivan - February 19, 2012
Ladson reports that Davey Johnson has arrived in camp
dc Roach - February 19, 2012
NITBSOHL
Mark Zuckerman:
Good news: I’ve reported to spring training. Bad news: I’m nowhere close to being in the best shape of my life.
dc Roach - February 19, 2012
Love it!
Have you seen Fangraph’s annual bsohl posts? I think there were something like 30 players quoted as saying that last year….
William.Hatheway - February 19, 2012
Mark Zuckerman:
Ian Desmond switched from No. 6 to 20 in part, he said, to honor 2 of his favorites: Frank Robinson and Barry Sanders.
dc Roach - February 19, 2012
Two famous shortstops.
Whupass - February 19, 2012
William Ladson:
Excluding catchers, 11 position players, including Rick Ankiel, are in #Nats camp. #MLB
dc Roach - February 19, 2012
Strasburg is in the house
dc Roach - February 19, 2012
Cameron retires
Now what?
Bsullivan - February 19, 2012
Got to help Harpers chances at the least.
DC20 - February 19, 2012 via iPhone app
Well we need a rh hitting cf
I guess werth?
Bsullivan - February 19, 2012
Pretty much locks job for derosa
Bsullivan - February 19, 2012
What?
RobBobS - February 19, 2012
Wow. Did not see this before.
Not that I’m distressed or anything.
RobBobS - February 19, 2012
Can Lannan play cf?
Bsullivan - February 19, 2012
Cameron must have gotten one look at Harper arriving in camp...
And said, “Forget it.” Interesting in MLB Network Radio interview he said he wanted to get down there and see if he could still go. Quick decision.
Patrick Reddington - February 19, 2012
Reckon he looked around and thought, “Screw this – pushing forty is exercise enough.”
Whupass - February 19, 2012
Yay!
Great career, but he was done. Good choice Mr. Cameron. Gotta think Xavier Paul will get a better chance this year(im saying he will be the next Laynce Nix)
jeff550 - February 19, 2012
NITBSOHL
Adam Kilgore:
Roger Bernadina is here. He is not as shockingly jacked as last spring, but close.
dc Roach - February 19, 2012
Nationals PR:
Great seeing this guy suited up with the curly W on his jersey… twitpic.com/8m2uoy
dc Roach - February 19, 2012
NVLPUT...
New Very Long Post Up Top…
Patrick Reddington - February 19, 2012
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