• Nats Sign Chad Durbin: ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (@JCrasnick) was first with the news that a source said the Washington Nationals had signed 32-year-old 6'4'' right-handed reliever Chad Durbin to a minor league deal that will (when it's officially announced) likely include an invitation to Spring Training. MLB.com's Bill Ladson (@washingnats) has since confirmed the deal, writing on Twitter, "I have confirmed that the #Nats have signed Chad Durbin to a Minor League deal." The 12-year MLB veteran pitched for the Cleveland Indians last season, for whom he was (2-2) with a 5.53 ERA, 4.85 FIP, 26 walks (3.42 BB/9) and 59 K's (7.77 K/9) in 56 games and 68.1 IP. The 1996 Kansas City Royals' 3rd Round pick out of Woodlawn High School in Baton Rouge, LA, has pitched for the Royals, Indians, D-Backs, Tigers and Phillies during his career, amassing a (38-46) record in 364 games, 75 starts, and 759.1 IP over which he has a career 5.10 ERA, 5.11 FIP, 6.07 K/9 and 3.89 BB/9.
• D.C. GM on BA Organizational Rankings...
As we noted earlier this week in this story on 2011 3rd Round pick Matt Purke, the prospects in the Washington Nationals' organization were ranked baseball's best in Baseball America's annual Prospect Handbook, though BA's Jim Callis did note on Twitter that the book went to press before Washington had traded three players (RHP Brad Peackock - no. 3; RHP A.J. Cole -no. 4; C Derek Norris -no. 9 and LHP Tommy Milone) who were on BA's Top 10 Prospects list when it was released this past December. "No. 1 in Handbook, will slip a little in final rankings," Mr. Callis wrote (@JimCallisBA) when asked how the trade would affect the Nats' status, but as the Nats' GM explained in a recent interview they made the trade with the A's because they thought the next wave of pitchers they have coming up in the organization, "... will at least equal and possibly surpass the package of guys that we've given up in this trade."
In a press release on the Baseball America organizational rankings released today, Rizzo thanks the Nats' owners for their commitment to rebuilding the barren franchise inherited from MLB and Montreal. "'The Lerner family told me they intended to build the Nationals from the ground up and we took it seriously. The scouting and player development departments worked tirelessly and effectively to sign the best prospects to make a major league roster and to give us the ability to either play the best or trade for the best." Baseball America's Mr. Callis is quoted as well, explaining that the team's gradual climb up the rankings is a result of their approach, saying they've, "... been as aggressive as any team in the draft, which is the best way to build a team and a farm system."
• The press release also includes the revised Nats' prospect rankings after the Gio Gonzalez trade:
0 recs | 56 comments
Lemire mentioned today that the astros have yielded 4 major leaguers from the 05-07 drafts
just wow
TJL - February 1, 2012
I would feel a lot better about the prospect rankings if
there weren’t so many names high on the list of guys who haven’t played a pitch in the minors yet.
Dollars to doughnuts the team rankings tumble big time next year as Harper becomes a regular MLB player and when these freshly-drafted guys start to play. They won’t all be success stories — things just don’t happen that way.
RobBobS - February 1, 2012
For reference, here is BA's top ten from 12/22/10
1. Harper
2. Norris
3. Espinosa
4. Cole
5. Ramos
6. Solis
7. Kimball
8. Perez
9. Marrero
10 Peacock
Good point about our top 5 being very ‘11 draft heavy. But I only see Harper and Lombo ’graduating’ from this list before next year. Plus we’ll have our 1st rounder of this year hopefully on next year’s list too.
rfk428 - February 1, 2012
Im surprised about Norris
I just never imagined him being the #2 prospect in the org. I find it hard to think that Ramos – who was essentially a full time ML catcher is beaten by Norris who hasn’t played a game in the majors. People can talk ‘upsides’ out their ‘backsides’ but im pretty certain you actually have to produce on the field. And Norris hasnt proven much.
Mezza - February 1, 2012
Ramos was not yet a full time catcher at the time.
He had only played in 22 games before 2011.
RobBobS - February 1, 2012
aahh.
22 Dec 2010. So in essence this list is pretty much useless?
Mezza - February 1, 2012
It's here "for reference".
As in, what was the perceived state of the Nats org a year ago?
RobBobS - February 1, 2012
Exactly
I was interested to see how the system was viewed a year ago, considering the current ranking both pre and post Gio trade.
rfk428 - February 1, 2012
I gues though this is pre-pre Gio trade. And in a years time we’ll know the post Gio trade?
Mezza - February 1, 2012
Aren't all of these lists "pretty much useless"?
rfk428 - February 1, 2012
I guess my interest would have been to see what the state of the system is now. Not a year ago when we all have a pretty good idea on how these guys have developed.
I just kinda think that this is about as useful as looking back at the Standings of the NL East and ranking teams based on that.
Mezza - February 1, 2012
Rendon and Purke are very MLB ready and could be gone from the list next year, or the could not be healthy and be total busts.
Doncosmic - February 2, 2012
All true
but I think Rendon (if healthy, and I understand that is a problem) is a can’t miss prospect.
I think his arm won’t be a problem. Its not like he is logging 300 innings. And his ankle, c’mon. I have broken an ankle and sprained each one a bizzillion times. He’ll be fine.
Jason Kendall did it, Magglio Ordonez, Geoff Jenkins. Not a big deal.
Bsullivan - February 2, 2012
can't believe they took John Lannan to arbitration over $700,000........
after all he’s done….
cat daddy3000 - February 1, 2012
I hear ya
I also cant believe they just didnt work something out before hand. Split the difference – we’re talking at best 3-400k. It’s a lot for you and me – but not much when you’re on $5m.
sheesh.
Mezza - February 1, 2012
just out of respect for being there in the lean years...
cat daddy3000 - February 1, 2012
A breakdown in the process?
Who do you think will win? My money’s on the Nats.
RobBobS - February 1, 2012
I think teams normally win. The Nats have a pretty good record in arb meetings from memory. So I have no idea why they would trash each other for the amount of money.
Mezza - February 1, 2012
Lannan could well have dug in his heels.
Of course, so too could have Rizzo.
RobBobS - February 1, 2012
Im sure they both did…but i was hoping they both saw some sense.
Mezza - February 1, 2012
Popeye Riggs found out in a hurry...don't push Rizzo
into a corner!
]
My guess is that Lannan has learned that the hard way too.
(And for the record, Lannan was the opening day pitcher because the other SP were so terriible…[Bowden! Seilg! Loria! Minaya
And I’m unmoved by Bambi’s DP “success” rate. If he hadn’t walked the first batter or given up the single, the DP wouldn’t be necessary.)
Heh.
MissB - February 1, 2012 via mobile
Lannan to Miss B –
Don’t call me Bambi! You are costing me money!
Sincerely,
Moose
PerryMason - February 1, 2012
heh..... rec'd!
cat daddy3000 - February 1, 2012
They have a two hearing winning streak going...
Can Lannan stop the streak?
Patrick Reddington - February 1, 2012
Who were the two?
Burnett and Soriano?
Mezza - February 1, 2012
Big bearded Bruney...
Patrick Reddington - February 1, 2012
the streak should be three?
Or did they lose one.
Mezza - February 1, 2012
Shawn hill won in '09...
Can’t find one between him and Burnett/Bruney…
Patrick Reddington - February 1, 2012 via mobile
Zimm and Hammer avoided arb that year...
And I believe Burnett/Bruney were the next two and last til Lannan now…iirc
Patrick Reddington - February 1, 2012 via mobile
Ah Hill
Must have been after that one good year before the got ‘Nats Elbow’
Mezza - February 1, 2012
Nats #12
I’ll take it
http://cnnsi.com/2012/writers/joe_lemire/02/01/offseason.power.rankings/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_t13_a2
Bsullivan - February 1, 2012
Cards over the Reds?
I’m not so sure about that.
RobBobS - February 1, 2012
Thinking the same thing.
What’s the prediction on Wainwright’s innings pitched?
PerryMason - February 1, 2012
Yea, I think the Reds should be favored in that division.
Being the only team that still has their MVP 1B, and having also traded for an ace. and thats not just my red colored glasses speaking.
Doncosmic - February 2, 2012
AdamKilgoreWP:
Mike Rizzo said he spoke with John Lannan today after the arbitration hearing: “He said he’s raring to go. … No hard feelings at all.”
dc Roach - February 1, 2012
Dear John,
Sorry that during the hearing I called you “Bambi”. No hard feelings?
—Mike
RobBobS - February 1, 2012 via mobile
cruel...............5.7!!!
cat daddy3000 - February 1, 2012
Any chance Rendon is called up before July?
samoka10 - February 2, 2012
No, but september could be possible.
Doncosmic - February 2, 2012
I doubt it
(a ) he still has not played a professional game
(b ) no spot available for him in the lineup (insufficient experience at 2B to play there and push Espinoza to SS and Desmond to the bench/trade)
(c ) to young to be one of Davey’s “hairy-chested mashers” off the bench
jbg2772 - February 2, 2012
Agree on all three points, well said.
But if he mashes, I think our middle infield is shaking boots.
Bsullivan - February 2, 2012
Rendon is a small guy
In terms of him mashing, I’ll have to see it to believe it. I just hope he is a high contact/high OBP guy with 18-25 Hr power. If more power the better. But this lineup is in desperate need of quality bats that can hit for average and get on base.
This .242/.309 junk will not stand.
This aggression will not stand, man!
Bsullivan - February 2, 2012
(Desmond sings...)
Branded!
RobBobS - February 2, 2012
And to continue my train of thought?
This is where I worry about BJ Upton. While building the lineup, he is more of the same. Low avg, low OBP guy. this team needs to score more runs.
4 of the top 5 teams in OBP all made the playoffs last year. Yankees, Cardinals, Tigers, and Rangers. The Bosox should have but had a really weird two part stretch at the beginning and end of the season.
Yankees – 2nd
Cardinals – 3rd
Tigers – 4th
Rangers- 5th
Brewers -10th
Phillies – 11th
Diamondbacks 12th
Rays 13th
The only real outliers that had a shot at the postseason were the Braves who were at 26th. So while OBP is trendy and with Moneyball, people may argue that it is overvalued, but it isn’t hard to see that well over 50% of the teams in the top 13 OBP made the playoffs. (8/13)
The team that didn’t were the Mets, Royals, Bosox, Reds, and Rockies. Those teams finished in the top 11 in runs given up,
Bsullivan - February 2, 2012
Yeah, well, ... careful
If you did the same analysis simply examining runs scored instead of OBP you’d get more or less the same results. It was offense in general, in an era of increased dominance of pitching, that helped these teams get to the playoffs. It so happens that OBP is highly correlated with runs, but it’s not the only such stat.
Specifically, here are the correlation coefficients for several statistics with team runs scored for the 2011 NL.
OBP: .90
SLG: .88
BA: .73
HR: .63
BB: .63
2B: .30
3B: .09
CS: -.15
SB: -.19
SO: -.47
Some interesting things to note: SLG was, in a way, almost as good a generator of total offense as OBP. This makes sense in a low-run environment (solo home runs are more meaningful when teams are scoring 4.1 runs per game than when they’re scoring 4.7, like they were as recently as 2007.) Total walks and total homers carried roughly equal explanatory value for runs scored. Stolen bases actually negatively contribute to scoring runs. I can’t stress that enough. The more teams stole bases, the fewer total runs they scored. Of course, teams that have terrible offenses will try to do things like steal bases a lot because they think they can only score by playing small ball, but there are other teams like the Dodgers who got on base reasonably often and stole a lot of bases, but still were mediocre in their total offense — ’cause they had no power.
RobBobS - February 2, 2012
Of course,
with the SB/CS, you’re talking a relatively low (negative) correlation. Have you looked at the relationship between SB and the other batting indicators? Perhaps a bit off-topic, but my guess is SB is also negatively correlated with HR and SLG…
jbg2772 - February 2, 2012
Correct, and the negative correlation is even stronger
(-.49 for SLG, and -.52 for HR).
RobBobS - February 2, 2012
Any causation between successful stolen bases and fewer runs seems odd to me, though. If you’re talking empty bases, then a single and a stolen base shouldn’t make it harder to score (by taking the bat out of a guy’s hands for example) than a double, right? And in fact might make it easier by providing a distraction (I don’t know about this).
If so, then it seems more likely to me that the reduced offense is more related to the team’s approach than it is to the stolen bases themselves. As you say, it’s a question of power for some teams.
So successfully stealing bases shouldn’t negatively contribute to scoring runs, it should merely negatively correlate to scoring because of other factors.
I think.
brs03 - February 2, 2012
I agree.
I only point it out in “pre-buttal” against the Bob Carpenter line of thinking, i.e. that it would be great if the Nats were just like the ’86 Cardinals.
RobBobS - February 2, 2012
I guess I only took issue with the bolded “negatively contribute” line. To me that implies causation.
I can see why it would be a decent correlation though.
brs03 - February 2, 2012
implication by fonting!RobBobS - February 2, 2012
My real point here
I’m just saying that a .310/.490 hitter may well contribute as much as, say, a .330/.460 hitter even though OBP is typically valued more than SLG.
RobBobS - February 2, 2012
Sure, point taken
Just notice that the Nats stink in the most correlated stats.
So maybe with your argument BJ Upton is a better than avg. CF because of his relatively high slugging #’s.
Bsullivan - February 2, 2012
Nats do strike out a fair bit, don't they?
I’m not one usually too concerned about strikeouts, but… leading the league in them cannot be a good thing.
RobBobS - February 2, 2012
atrocious really
This team still has a long way to go. They CAN compete, but need to improve drastically to make it a yearly thing.
Bsullivan - February 2, 2012
Clarification
I still agree that one point of OBP is more important than one point of SLG. I didn’t mean to imply otherwise here.
RobBobS - February 2, 2012
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