"I mean obviously, Prince [Fielder] is a great hitter, and great first baseman to have," Washington Nationals' closer Drew Storen told MLB Network Radio hosts Jim Bowden and Casey Stern this afternoon in an interview on Inside Pitch. "But, as I've been saying all along," the 24-year-old right-hander continued in discussing the fact the Fielder was rumored to be headed for D.C. before he ended up signing in Detroit, "... even [as] we've talked among teammates, we have all the confidence in the world in Adam LaRoche. He's a good, quality, all-around first baseman and we're going to be fine. We're still excited about the year. Our plans don't change. Nothing changes for us, that's not something we were set on happening and quite honestly, who really knows what was going on behind the scenes."

As the MLB Network Radio host and former Nats' GM explained a few weeks back in a commentary on the Fielder market, the current Nats' GM, Mike Rizzo, was maintaining throughout the process that the Nationals were perfectly comfortable going with the 32-year-old LaRoche at first in the second year of the two-year deal he inked with Washington last winter for a reason.
If things with Scott Boras' 27-year-old free agent first baseman didn't work out, "... you don't want LaRoche to sit there and say, 'What? You don't like me?'" Jim Bowden explained, "'You don't care about me?' you know, 'What about me? I signed here to play first base?'" Having never committed publicly to anything other than keeping an eye on the situation, with only anonymous sources providing writers with updates, the Nationals avoided creating an uncomfortable situation with the man who will be their first baseman in 2012 if he's healthy.
If LaRoche has any issues with his surgically-repaired shoulder, the Nationals can turn to Michael Morse the general manager kept reiterating all winter, just as Morse did in 2011 when LaRoche went down. The Nationals' closer said tonight that he and his teammates liked what they saw defensively even in the small sample size LaRoche provided last season.
"Defensively, he's unbelievable at first," Storen told Mr.'s Bowden and Stern, "In the short time that I got to see him last year, it's really a lot of fun to watch him play over there. He's got a sweet swing from the left side, with the shoulder injury he didn't really have a chance to get it going. So, I think this year, obviously there's going to be a little fire under his belt with all the attention towards Prince here, and I expect him to come out and have a great year."
Asked if the fact that they Nats were unable to land a big free agent bat has set the Nationals' timetable for competing back at all, the Nats' '09 1st Round pick said he believes the work the team has done the last few years to build a contender is about pay off. "I think this year is really where you're starting to see things fall into place a little bit more. When you have a lot of young talent, even starting back with guys like Ryan Zimmerman being one of the first 1st Round picks for the Nationals, he is a staple guy and hopefully a guy that they take care of and keep around for a long time, but you kind of see that's going to start falling down the line as some of those first round picks are getting older and the bigger prospects become seasoned, veteran guys in the big leagues, and that's when that stuff pays off."
1st Round picks like Zimmerman, Chris Marrero, Ross Detwiler, Stephen Strasburg, Storen, Bryce Harper and potentially even Anthony Rendon could contribute this year (O.K., Rendon is a longshot). The Nationals didn't add the Brewers '02 1st Round pick to the mix today, but he wasn't really in the Nats' plans when manager Davey Johnson or Mike Rizzo talked about fielding a competitive team in 2012 at the end of last year. In fact, Johnson dismissed the idea, telling 106.7 the FAN in D.C's Holden Kushner and Mike Wise that signing Fielder didn't make sense. "I think you've got to answer the question about how good are the guys you've got," Johnson said, referring at the time to someone like Chris Marrero who's since suffered an injury, "They need to be up playing and playing at their top level. Then you think about adding somebody, that's the formula. You don't go out and do it, spend a lot of money right now to get some big masher."
The Nationals didn't, but they've also failed to find (thus far this winter) the center fielder/leadoff man they said they wanted. Washington might have to wait until 2013 to find the outfielder they're after. The chance to add a once-or-twice-in-a-generation middle-of-the-order bat passed them by this afternoon. They won't get another chance to do that any time soon, now they have to hope Bryce Harper turns into one in the next few seasons.
0 recs | 121 comments
Yoenis Cespedes Gains Residency In Dominican Republic
According MLB TR
HG_VA - January 24, 2012
So since the Nats said they're not in on Cespedes, we assume they're going big for him, right?
Patrick Reddington - January 24, 2012
Anything is possible.
Rizzo saw in person. Since Fielder is no longer an option, we don’t know.
HG_VA - January 24, 2012
Depending on the cost
I think the one thing ive taken from this offseason is that the Nats are kicking the tyres on a few acqusitions but not willing to overpay for it. In some ways i wonder if the Werth signing had a negative effect of rising the price of every negotiation. So maybe they will be in on him- but only if he is at a decent cost.
Mezza - January 25, 2012
I think now is the time to make a run at Upton
Many think the change of scenery would do him good. At 28 his defense and speed are stellar, he also has decent power in his bat. If we could move Desmond and a catcher (sorry Flores) to Tampa for him I would do it in a heartbeat. Bring up Lombardozzi at 2nd and have him lead off. Switch hitting 2B and SS, plus when LaRoche can be moved and Morse to 1st, Harper takes up the other outfield spot. Decent lefty righty combos on offense and a bit more power as well.
Mattionals - January 24, 2012
I'd be shocked if the Rays would go for that.
If by some miracle they did, it would be imperative to have a plan B in case Lobardozzi can’t hit for an acceptable average. I’d be ok if he turned out to be a .260-70 hitter with a decent OBP. I’m not so sure he can do that. Still, plenty of teams get by with good field, no hit shortstops. If Desmond goes instead of a stopgap outfielder we’ll need a stopgap middle infielder.
mstomper - January 24, 2012
DeRosa?
Mattionals - January 24, 2012
Given his recent injury history, we'd need a stopgap for the stopgap.
mstomper - January 24, 2012
why for one year
would you give up serious chips… i have made clear i dont love our SS but he is a legit SS and that is rare at this level … and young and cheap. why not wait a single year … and if we have a replacement someday we can be sure about, trade desi or whoever for more than a one year rental. BJ hardly guarantees any different outcome to make such a reaction smart.
William.Hatheway - January 24, 2012
Sure we only get one year of Upton
But the offense is terrible and this bolsters defense. I am tired of “waiting until next year” because next year never comes and we always are spoon fed a story saying “we like what we have up the middle” or “we intend on contending in two years”. Bring Upton here, if he turns it around, he could sign an extension for a home town discount to play alongside his childhood friend Ryan Zimmerman. He hits the open market and we don’t get the type of leverage. We also deal away two parts that become somewhat expendable thanks to younger players in the system.
Mattionals - January 24, 2012
Waiting through the past few years of dreck makes anyone impatient, I get that
But: (1) making a rash move now essentially undoes much of the progress we’ve made since 2009. If the Rays are going to insist upon (and well they might) Espinosa + Flores, that’s really going to set the Nationals back – you have to commit to Desmond and Lombardozzi as your starting MI, Solano as your backup catcher and really, really, really hope that Rendon is all that and a bag of chips. It takes a lot of chips (“young players in the system”) for each major league starter you get.
And (2) making that move commits you to paying top dollar for Upton to extend him, if not to justify the move, but to keep too many holes from opening up in the lineup in 2013. That gives Upton a lot of leverage in negotiations. Unless one has specific, credible information, hopes for a “home town discount” are wishful thinking. I would be shocked if Upton gave the Nationals a home town discount, because it’s not in his best financial interests and the MLBPA pressures players not to accept less money.
d_c_guy - January 25, 2012
Not to mention,
this isn’t Upton’s home town.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
He's a Tidewater boy, like Zimm
Hell, I think they were high-school team-mates – and Norfolk’s three hours away, doing the speed limit.
Whupass - January 25, 2012
Rays would want something else I'd think
Even with Upton only under contract for a year. Desmond and Flores have little value to any team other than us right now. And they’re pretty valuable to us as it is. The only match I saw earlier was Norris for Upton but obviously that’s out the window. I still think it’s worth trading for him, but I don’t really see any matchups, especially with Beckham finally getting to the upper levels and Hak-Ju Lee tearing up everywhere he goes.
ZimforPrez - January 24, 2012
Maybe sign Fukudome for next to nothing and hope that Harper is ready after his annual beginning of the season hot streak is over.
mstomper - January 24, 2012
maybe...
he can generally hit righties, so as a platoon partner?
William.Hatheway - January 24, 2012
im with storen
actually looking forward to the season
odds are werth is better and ryan plays more than 2011, 135 more innings from Stras, 40 more from jordan, gio replaces our #5, another year more experienced at second, short, and catcher. plenty to like
none of the above is a stretch and even conservitave estimates make that quite a number of more wins.
William.Hatheway - January 24, 2012
I'm still not buying the offense
I’m happy with Morse at 1st though. By not signing Fielder, we can at least have the Beast at first prove himself and then if he does, sign him for another three or four years next offseason. Harper should make the team out of ST if we do not find a CF via trade.
Mattionals - January 24, 2012
again short sighted
give up a year of control fot two months of a very untested Harper is a bad gamble. I will bet real cash that he doesnt light it up relative to a MLBer in April and May. And it isnt wait until next year… they are good and so are a bunch of teams, bj doesnt guarantee any sort of dominance
William.Hatheway - January 24, 2012
I'm not convinced Harper will be ready.
If he is, great. But I don’t think it’s something we or management should count on. At least put someone out there who won’t hurt us. A platoon is fine if it’s one that can hit a little.
mstomper - January 24, 2012
I just hope the Nats give him a legitimate chance to make the team
Because he’s proved he deserves at least that.
RobBobS - January 24, 2012
+1
He’s probably the 2nd best OF we have at the moment…and im being pretty generous to Werth.
Mezza - January 25, 2012
His major league equivalencies say something much more pessimistic
This is actually a rigorous translation of minor league stats into how they’d play in the majors, and at this point:
Bryce Harper‘s MLEs for his first professional season:
413 AB, 35 R, 85 H, 17 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 33 RBI, 35 BB, 100 K, .206 / .271 / .322
You want THAT in the OF? And for the price of a year of control for when he actually develops?
William.Hatheway - January 25, 2012
Bah.
You are ignoring important issues here, esp. his double-jump and the two-week adjustment periods. If he batted all season at the rates that generated his final stats, then you might have an argument, but that is simply not the case. Twice, after slow starts at a level, he began to outmatch his competition. His ABs quite apparently did not all come from the same sample space; thus, the statistical measures you use here are completely invalid.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
COMPLETELY invalid?
I’m not saying it’s perfect. It is one indicator, which suggests considering tempering enthusiasm. But you think it is absolutely significant that he picked up AA in terms of picking up the majors?
I’d like a discussion, not absolute dismissal / absolute surety
William.Hatheway - January 25, 2012
I'm saying that in a mathematical sense
the sample you use for MLE’s is not a true random sample, so the comparison you use will be invalid unless you throw out a long list of caveats, including “MLEs, when used this way, have not been shown to be accurate”. I don’t mean to sound snippy, but I do like to be precise when using mathematical arguments.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
what I meant is that he, in a ridiculously short sample size at whopping AA doen't "deserve" anything
He may “prove” worthy
William.Hatheway - January 25, 2012
He obviously "deserves" something.
He “deserves” at least a job in professional baseball. He “deserves” to play at least at AA, IMO. But there’s more.
If you look not only at his overall numbers in the minors, but his trajectory in the minors, his outstanding performances in the AFL, the relatively rapid adjustment he made after the double-jump, the monstrous numbers he put up in college and high school, the reams of scouting reports indicating he’s got excellent-to-superb skills in all aspects of the game, and the very fact that he was the most coveted drafted hitter in the game in the last twenty years, I would say without too much hesitation that he at least “deserves a shot” to make the team out of spring training.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
Fair enough
same goes for your above point; I was just trying to throw in another perspective, but I appreciate your take
William.Hatheway - January 25, 2012
huh
Gio replaces our five? he’s our #2
Sportzxpert - January 24, 2012 via Android app
replaces our 5
in the sense that everyone else is moved down and the #5 is out.
JordanH - January 24, 2012
i meant he replaces our worst starter
because we have stras, zimm, lannan, wang, so we added a 2or 3 without giving up one in return
William.Hatheway - January 24, 2012
Gio shoved the Gorzelany/Livo/Maya pupu platter out of the rotation
The Herndon Kid - January 24, 2012 via mobile
He's our number 2?
Jordan Zimmermann has some words for you…
RobBobS - January 24, 2012
Rizzo has said he'd slot Gio in between Stras and Zim...
Don’t know that’s set in stone of course, so second in line if so as opposed to second-best…
Patrick Reddington - January 24, 2012 via mobile
That's fair
Does it make any real difference if you can go R-L-R-L in the rotation?
RobBobS - January 24, 2012
Statistically? Probably not
But GMs and Managers feel the need to split them up for whatever
ZimforPrez - January 24, 2012
Well, actually...
By ensuring that at least one of your starting pitchers in every 3+ game series is a lefty, you keep the other team from being cheap in some way with their hitters, especially if their best hitters are lefties.
Jorgath - January 25, 2012
good answer!
hadn’t thought about it one way or another
William.Hatheway - January 25, 2012
for whatever reason*
ZimforPrez - January 24, 2012
The thinking is that you split pitchers with similar profiles to avoid batters getting into a comfort zone
Putting a lefty between the two power RHP in the rotation does that. I’m not taking a position on it one way or the other, but that’s the rationale that I’ve heard.
d_c_guy - January 25, 2012
LaRoche
Career 9.4 WAR in 4022 PA. Given a full year of him at the plate, we can expect a total of 1.4 WAR this year from him at his career rate (because that’s what we’re supposed to hope that he “returns to”). OK, that makes him, … , um,… probably the worst first baseman in the league.
Yeah!
RobBobS - January 24, 2012
Be honest though, you would not sign Prince for that contract
That thing is franchise suicide, especially with them already having two people for the 1b/DH slot.
The Herndon Kid - January 24, 2012 via mobile
True, but that's not the issue
the issue dates back a year ago when Rizzo signed LaRoche for reasons I still can’t comprehend. You know the Nats are going to do whatever they can to make sure LaRoche, not Morse, gets the bulk of the ABs at first in 2012.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
meh
Im still hoping Marerro develops power…
Mezza - January 25, 2012
He's not even going to be able to play 'till June or July
I doubt he even wears Nats’ red this season.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
I always like the home grown guys. Be interesting to see where Rendon starts to play when they sign Zim to an extension.
Mezza - January 25, 2012
Yeah, that's a tough one
Almost certainly, one or more of Zim/Espi/Lombo/Desi/Rendon will not be in the organization before the 2013 campaign is done.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
Looking that way. I would have thought they would try Rendon at 1st and 3rd and see how he goes. If he bats as advertised then you can work him hard in the field to play both (which to be fair are reasonably similar positions). But I think the plan changes if Desi/Lombo cant hit and/or are traded.
Im probably more against playing Zim at 1st – where his value goes right down. So I suspect they’ll tinker with Rendon instead.
Mezza - January 25, 2012
There's no other option really
Unless just for the sake Morse’s vanity, they put him at first and LaRoche in left. Which would be fun
ZimforPrez - January 25, 2012
You're right
That doesn’t make it right.
Or, something like that.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
hater
Kumbaya, my Lord, kumbaya;
Kumbaya, my Lord, kumbaya;
Kumbaya, my Lord, kumbaya;
Oh, Lord, kumbaya.
Whupass - January 24, 2012
That's offensive WAR or total WAR?
And is it bWAR or fWAR? Is there a big difference?
(Plus, remember what we said in the Dunn era! UZR doesn’t work well for 1Bs, so defensive WAR is low!)
Jorgath - January 25, 2012
fWAR, FWIW.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
Adam LaRoche
could be better than or equal to
Ike Davis
Gaby Sanchez
Anthony Rizzo
Brett Wallace
Mat Gamel
Whoever the Pirates use
James Loney
jeff550 - January 25, 2012
and there are some more names I could put on there
and thats NL only
jeff550 - January 25, 2012
In the realm of possibility,
he could outperform every NL first baseman. It’s doubtful though. I was only saying that 1.4 WAR may be the lowest among regular NL 1Bs. It might not be. Loney blows, just like LaRoche. Wallace is developing and could be an average producer this year — but Lee is the Astro’s first baseman. It’s almost impossible to come up with a guess as to how Gamel’s going to do due to limited play. Garrett Jones will probably be the Pirates 1B, and he’ll do OK. Rizzo may well bust out this year. Sanchez and Davis will almost certainly out-perform LaRoche. I would also put Freeman in the questionable list.
Perhaps the reality is that with the departure of Pujols and Fielder, suddenly the NL is very shallow in quality first basemen.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
LaRoche speaks
per Kilgore
LaRoche also talks about his shoulder, which is coming along apparently.
dc Roach - January 24, 2012
Would've preferred to hear him saying he'd definitely be ready...
While Morse can play first if LaRoche goes down, that’s two spots in the OF that are issues until Harper’s up and producing.
Patrick Reddington - January 24, 2012 via mobile
believe in El Tiburon!
just believe!
dc Roach - January 24, 2012
Me too
But at the end of the day – he doesnt need to throw as much, as long as he can bat.
Mezza - January 25, 2012
Wuts he fixing to do, hit?
better be
Whupass - January 25, 2012
BTW Patrick, nice picture of LaRoche and company celebrating his big hit
Good times. Yep. Those were the days.
Oops. I mean: “That was the day.”
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
Mate, he’s got nothing on Austin Kearns. I still think LaRoche will come back to an average season this year. I couldn’t say that about Austin.
Mezza - January 25, 2012
Meh.
So he’s the new Nick “The Disabled List Legend” Johnson instead. So what?
Jorgath - January 25, 2012
I don’t think LaRoche has had injury problems in his career, prior to this, has he? I am confident that he averages .260 and has 25+ HRs.
sullyzz - January 25, 2012
Nick Johnson at least was great at something
Top-30 (of 10,000) with 7000 PAs at BB%…
William.Hatheway - January 25, 2012
Disappointed Along With RobBob.......
I too, was really, really looking forward to that incredible lineup with Prince. However, I must say that 9 for 217 is a little rich considering everything. Thanks to MLB for the insane idea of having different rules in each league; this had a direct impact on teams in one league being at a huge disadvantage in situations such as this. The Angels were able to go 10 for Big Al, when it would have been insane for the Cards to do so, while the Tigers were able to go 9 for Prince, when it would have been insane for the Nats to do so. If both leagues had the same rules, putting all teams on a level playing field, I would have liked the Nats chances of actually signing Prince Fielder for a reasonable length of time. AL teams will always be able to outbid NL teams in terms of years, simply due to that stupid DH rule; however, I’d be willing to see the NL inherit that ridiculous rule, just to incorporate overall fairness in the game. Ok….I have finished my rant, and am now ready to hear all you antiquated, mossy-backed traditionalists flame the heck out of me.
sullyzz - January 25, 2012
heretic!
dc Roach - January 25, 2012
Of course…..I hate paradigms, and always believe there’s a better way! Imagine if we never re-invented the wheel…..our Corvettes would still be running on wagon wheels!
sullyzz - January 25, 2012
you should google “corvette wagon wheels” :)
dc Roach - January 25, 2012
Touche'
Ok…..we’d still have stone wheels then; how’s that! lol
sullyzz - January 25, 2012
You make a good point...
of course, the REAL solution is to abolish the DH, not to have NL play fake baseball too.
ricksnats - January 25, 2012
Fake baseball!
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
Death to the DH
Can’t stand the DH.
souldrummer - January 25, 2012
DH is a god-awful abomination
as is inter-league play. Who needs the “junior circuit”?
Whupass - January 25, 2012
Upton...............
There will be no deal for Upton that does’nt include an extension…………
It’s now time to ask the question: WHO IS IN OUR OUTFIELD if Morse is at 1st and Harper is at AA?
artistfork - January 25, 2012
Some combination of Jayson Werth, Roger Bernadina, Mike Cameron, and Corey Brown
So here’s hoping LaRoche bounces back and Morse and Werth stay healthy – because that could get pretty grim.
d_c_guy - January 25, 2012
Why are Giant's jerseys on sale in a FB ad?
William.Hatheway - January 25, 2012
Let's just hope that sound you hear
isn’t whistling past the graveyard.
jbg2772 - January 25, 2012
Still think that Gamble
If we signed that deal with prince here for the 9/214.. imho Nats would make it all back with the new tv deal. everything would have rocketed on sales and easily his contract and our core would have been able to get done..oh well..this will have a sting on me for a while .. my only remedy is picturing the havoc our stud SP’s will have this year..u guys know the bUZZ IS our top 3 will be top 5 in majors..
Sportzxpert - January 25, 2012 via Android app
They would have surely overpaid with that deal.
But on the other hand, they are almost surely on the outside looking in as far as the NL playoff race goes.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
I think they fit as well as others for the 2 WCs
as I noted there are many reasons to expect a number of extra wins which, with 2 WCs and no really great divisions outside of the east they have a shot as much as FLA and ATL. Prince hamstrings the future at that price. I just don’t get hanging on to thinking not having him makes the Nats automatic also rans, and even thinks it is worth hurting their ability to extend others and keep competitive long term.
William.Hatheway - January 25, 2012
Automatic also-rans
because they need 10 additional wins to make the playoffs, which would be a challenge in the best of situations, and all they’ve really done to the roster is add Gonzalez. The rest is “hope that every single thing goes well”, which is not a particularly sound strategy. Maybe 2013 will be better, and they do have some flexibility, but 2012 just seems completely out of the question to me.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
Come on, RobBob
As a mathemetician, you know they’re on a guaranteed trajectory to 90 wins next year:
2009 – 59
2010 – 69
2011 – 80
What a trend! I for one cannot wait until 2019, when they will have 160 wins!!!!!!!
ricksnats - January 25, 2012
Even then
someone on this board will still describe the two losses as “hateful”.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
not losses
rainouts that were not made up.
:-)
ricksnats - January 25, 2012
You talkin' to me?
Huh? I mean, I don’t see nobody else standing here. You must be talking to me.
Whupass - January 25, 2012
No no.
No one in particular…
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
Nah, you musta' been talkin' to me
Whupass - January 25, 2012
no you don't
not with two WCs you don’t. They didn’t “just” add Gio. And no, you don’t expect perfection, but every team makes basic expectations. For ex., that Zim plays his career avg. number of games to account for both healthy and unhealthy seasons, that his performance will be better than last year but can’t assume it’ll be tops; that Werth isn’t either last year or the 3 before; that Stras. is healthy, since that is what generally happens with TJ recoverers; that Jordan pitches a full season, and is on regular rest throughout so he will be better, and Gio isn’t “just” because he replaces a horrendous 5th spot in the rotation, and you can assume a bit of progression for young players because that is what TENDS to happen. That is all you can do… you can’t assume the worst case as much as you can’t assume the best when predicting finish, which is what you are doing. A realistic assumption is that they add enough games to have an equal shot to get the 2nd WC (WHICH IS NOT 90)
William.Hatheway - January 25, 2012
Three things
One: the only real improvement they’ve made to the roster is adding Gonzalez. I’m not downplaying adding Gonzalez, I’m just saying they haven’t done anything else (unless you want to count signing Cameron, and I can’t see why you’d want to do that).
Two: most of the “improvements” you talk about are exactly what I’m talking about: the Nats are hoping that much of the stuff that has gone wrong for them the last couple of years won’t go wrong for them this year. I myself am expecting as much, and it’s why I imagine they will win close to 85 games this year. That’s a substantial improvement.
Three: but as I believe we discussed some time ago, 85 games would have qualified the Nats for a playoff spot only once in the last 10 years, and that was a fluke. Typically, the second-best non-division winner record in the NL has been in the 89-91 win range since 2000.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
To be pedantic, here are the records of the first and second wild cards in the NL:
(pretending that there were two wild cards)
2011: STL 90, ATL 89
2010: ATL 91, SDP 90
2009: COL 92, FLA 87
2008: MIL 90, NYM 89
2007: COL 90, NYM 88
2006: LAD 88, PHI 85
2005: HOU 89, PHI 88
2004: HOU 92, SFG 91
2003: FLA 91, HOU 87
2002 SFG 95, HOU 84
2001: STL 93, SFG 90
2000: NYM 94, LAD 86
So I’ll admit I mis-typed. The range is better described to be 88-90 wins.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
wild card is not impacted by dh
so taking both leagues, average isEXACTLY 88. they were 80 -81 so extra game is best considered a split, so 80.5.
William.Hatheway - January 25, 2012
They were outscored but twenty runs, they were a bit lucky.
Their Pythagorean estimate was 78-83. So, in a way, unless they expect to get lucky again, they need to improve by roughly ten games to get to your 88.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
without youth progression = 86.4 wins
using 3-2-1 regression, ryan = 4.9vs2.5, jordan in fulltime 5-day starts 4.4vs3.4, gio 3.2 200 ip vs 1.9 2011 5th starter 200 ip, werth 3.7 vs 2.5.
add .5 per 24-26 (in 2012) progression = 88.
88 = average #2 wildcard over 10 years in MLB.
So yes, IN THE MIX.
your ego exceeds your math… ive tried to give you props when due but never seen you take anyone others points into consideration…
William.Hatheway - January 25, 2012
My ego exceeds my math
Well that pretty much says it all. Well put.
Anyway, this calculation is interesting, but I think it’s the most positive outcome possible. Some of this stuff just won’t happen. Like I keep saying: this is the Nats we’re talking about.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
the most possible
is ryan full season, werth 2008 – 2010 instead of 2011
but you are right… i ignored pythag. maybe intentionally, which is stupid because you are not. so all told, stras included, and my stance that what i just said, not before, is best case, is that, well, they are in the mix this year and then inch up and ahead of the phils every year after
William.Hatheway - January 25, 2012
Leave the Phillies in the dust?
I’m all for that.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
i hope i can meet you at your season ticket seats someday, btw
you are really really astute
William.Hatheway - January 25, 2012
Come on over any time
But I warn you, I’ll likely enlist your help in the “WIL-SONNN” cheer.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
holy crap
i forgot stras… as i said, post t-john pitchers are generally fine, so assuming 160 ip vs his career total he brings 5 wins. that makes them an assumption to get past the reg season when compared to the pitcher innings he replaces
William.Hatheway - January 25, 2012
And I can't see how you think that
87/88/89 wins is a “realistic assumption”. I don’t think anyone expects that this is where they should be barring unforeseen circumstances. Perhaps you mean “realistic goal”. I’d mildly argue with that, but at least it’s in the realm of possibility.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
And it's not as if everyone else in the NL has stood pat
and don’t have expected in-house improvements as well.
jbg2772 - January 25, 2012
Some have, some haven't
It depends on how old the team’s players are, how healthy they were last year, and how good (how close to their career averages) they were last year. The Nationals are hoping that regression works for them in the case of Werth and Zimmerman, and that the injury limitations from last year (Strasburg, Zimmermann, LaRoche), and that their age works for them in terms of moving towards their peak. In the NL East the Braves and perhaps the Marlins should improve, the Phillies and the Mets may be more likely to slip a bit.
And let me just add: I hate this time of year. C’mon, spring!
d_c_guy - January 25, 2012
Give me two numbers:
Nats 2012 wins, and the wins of the 2nd wild card team, and I’ll happily bet on mine being closer.
William.Hatheway - January 25, 2012
Second Wild Card: 88
Nationals: 86
aholla30 - January 25, 2012
damn, took mine!
Seriously!
William.Hatheway - January 25, 2012
so clearly aholla is brilliant...
William.Hatheway - January 25, 2012
89 wins for second wild card.
85 wins for Nats. And I’m being optimistic.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
I'll take Rob's side of the bet
and hope to be pleasantly surprised, as I was last year.
jbg2772 - January 25, 2012
That's still a 5-win increase over last season
And it marks further progress. It’s something we should be ready to be satisfied with.
I understand the frustration with the “wait till next year” plan. The problem is, we’ve never been on the “wait till next year” plan until this year. Literally, this is the first time we’ve been able to say “wait till next year” and realistically mean it. So while the guys are going to try for the playoffs, and we’re going to root for them to make the playoffs, we’re really waiting to go all-in next year.
Personally, I’m scrubbing the memory of the 2006-2009 seasons out of my mind altogether. For a variety of reasons, the Nats didn’t have a chance. The only real mistake that was made during that time by anyone still with the organization was the Lerners not increasing payroll for the start of 2008, but I would think they have to be forgiven for that now. Our payroll has increased and is set to balloon over the next three years.
Since Rizzo took over, we’ve been on a steady upward trajectory. While it’s not impossible to go from worst to first overnight, it’s unrealistic to expect it. We’ve been improving steadily, and across the board we’re being built for sustained success. If we continue to improve this season, we have nothing to be upset about.
Besides Fielder (who was never available at terms we should accept, period), what move could we have made offensively? Which free agent could we have signed that would have helped the organization more than he hurt it? Which player could we have traded for that would not have crippled our farm system?
Now, I too am disappointed that we don’t have a shiny new bat in our lineup, but there is no neighborhood baseball player store that Rizzo can go to with a grocery list. What move makes sense?
Anyway, I too expect ~85 wins this year, and I’ll be thrilled at more, mildly disappointed at less, and only really upset if we finish under .500.
rarumberger - January 25, 2012
In terms of trades, there weren't a whole lot of possibilities,
I suppose the only one I might have thought was a reasonable fit for a stop-gap CF was Angel Pagan. I think in retrospect they could have got Anthony Rizzo for a song.
RobBobS - January 25, 2012
88 wins for second wild card
Nats 88 wins
Benson L - January 25, 2012
In all these scenarios they are in the race!
PerryMason - January 25, 2012
We'll win 90
If we don’t, I’ll buy beer for the room…and hell, if we do win 90, I’ll buy liquor for the room.
Whupass - January 25, 2012
"That’s the problem with drinking, I thought, as I poured myself a drink. If something bad happens you drink in an attempt to forget; if something good happens you drink in order to celebrate; and if nothing happens you drink to make something happen."
― Charles Bukowski, Women
PerryMason - January 25, 2012
best. writer. ever.
William.Hatheway - January 25, 2012
"There's nothing worse than too late."
Whupass - January 25, 2012
Oh Yes
PerryMason - January 25, 2012
FIXED
That’s the
problem withadvantage of drinking, I thought, as I poured myself a drink.ricksnats - January 26, 2012
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