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Why The Washington Nationals Haven't Signed Prince Fielder Yet Chatter?

WASHINGTON DC - DECEMBER 15:  Jayson Werth #28 of the Washington Nationals speaks as he is introduced to the media on December 15 2010 at Nationals Park in Washington DC.   (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

Mitchell Layton - Getty Images

over 1 year ago: WASHINGTON DC - DECEMBER 15: Jayson Werth #28 of the Washington Nationals speaks as he is introduced to the media on December 15 2010 at Nationals Park in Washington DC. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

• Why Haven't The Nats Signed Prince Fielder Chatter: Why haven't the Washington Nationals signed Prince Fielder yet? Because they don't have to. Time and again this winter, D.C. GM Mike Rizzo's said the Nats are perfectly comfortable with a surgically-repaired Adam LaRoche at first and Michael Morse as a Plan B if LaRoche isn't back to full-strength. The Nationals finally have the upper hand Washington Post writer Thomas Boswell argued yesterday in a chat with fans.

"Because the Nats don't need Fielder, that should (finally) put them in the driver's seat in a negotiation," the WaPost writer said, and in answering another reader's question, he said that, "... because Fielder is not a 'fit' for the Nats position needs and because the N.L. has no DH, he should not be worth nearly as much to the Nats as he would be to the proper A.L. team."

Desperate to establish themselves as a legitimate destination for future free agents last winter, Washington went all out to bring Jayson Werth to the nation's capital, offering more money and a longer deal than the outfielder was going to find anywhere else. The Nationals needed a right fielder, saw an opportunity to add a piece they felt could be part of a future division winner and they overpaid to get it, a decision that looks like a bad one after one year of the seven-year deal, but Werth's first season in D.C. will be all-but-forgotten if he's doing his part to contribute when Washington makes its first postseason appearance.

Star-divide

The Nationals believe that the 80-81 team that finished in 3rd place in the NL East will be improved even without the addition of a big power bat like Fielder's. D.C. GM Mike Rizzo said as much in a recent interview with reporters following the acquisition of the Gio Gonzalez, the top-of-the-rotation arm they were looking for last winter but didn't find until now. "I think with the normal maturation of our good core young players," Rizzo said, "I think they're only going to get better. I think that hopefully we have a healthier season out of the gate. Hopefully Ryan Zimmerman is there for the full complement of games. We hope that Adam LaRoche is there and has a typical Adam LaRoche season. We hope that Jayson Werth has a typical Jayson Werth season.

"We feel that there will be improvements in [Wilson] Ramos and [Ian Desmond] at short and [Danny Espinosa] at second base," the general manager continued, "We feel that we're going to get an uptick in offense just from those players improving and getting to their career norms. I like our rotation. I like our bullpen. I think that we're going to play better, smarter, more fundamental baseball. Davey [Johnson's] going to manage this team as good as any manager in baseball, so I feel good and I feel optimistic about where we're at. We're never satisfied. I always see places that need an improvement. But, with that said, we like our ballclub and our goal is to be playing meaningful games at the end of the season in September and beyond."

The Texas Rangers are believed to be interested in Prince Fielder, but only if they don't sign 25-year-old Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters' right-hander Yu Darvish. If the Rangers sign Darvish, and they have until 1/18 to do so, there aren't too many people out there who think they'll add Prince Fielder too after spending $51.7M on the posting fee and potentially $75-to-$100M more on Darvish's actual contract.

"Unless the Nats get wind — and not from Scott [Boras] — that the Darvish deal is dying, they should sit tight," the Washington Post's Thomas Boswell wrote yesterday, "The Cubs just traded for a young 1st baseman. Seattle clearly doesn't want a Prince-sized contract. Toronto has never spent much. The Nats should just wait. There's no rush and there's no need. There may, however, be an opportunity."

Twitter: ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) wrote this afternoon that he spoke to agents about the situation in Seattle and, "According to one of those agents, Prince Fielder-to-Seattle speculation is 'extremely overblown.'"

• The Last Nats' Big Middle-of-the-Order Bat: Washington had no illusion they were a postseason contender the last time the Nationals signed a slugging first baseman and a big middle-of-the-order bat. Another GM was making the calls then, but a similar situation led to Adam Dunn signing with Washington. Adam Dunn didn't want to go to the AL, believing he could still play the field, and there were no suitors in the American League willing to give more than the Nationals were offering.

"The opportunities [as a free agent] weren't exactly what I wanted them to be," Dunn told MLB.com's Bill Ladson at the time in an article entitled, "Nats sign Dunn to two-year, $20M deal", but joining the Nationals provided an opportunity to help build something, "I get a chance and hopefully turn the program around." Hopefully, if Prince Fielder ends up signing in D.C., the money he gets will be enough that he won't feel the need to let the Nationals fans know they were his only legitimate option...

• How Serious Are The Rangers?:

MLB.com writer T.R. Sullivan wrote last week, in an article entitled, "Daniels on Napoli, Fielder, Bullpen", that Rangers' GM Jon Daniels was saying that, "... the Rangers are not interested in free agent first baseman Prince Fielder." Over the weekend, CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) wrote that the Rangers, "... still have one eye on Prince, but their No. 1 goal is to sign Darvish. if they get Yu, chance for Fielder lessens." Chicago Tribune writer Phil Rogers wrote that the Rangers are, "... studying a late run at Prince Fielder as a contingency if it deems Darvish's demands too high."

Dallas Morning News' writer Evan Grant wrote that the Rangers might benefit from the lack of suitors for Fielder in an article entitled, "Deadlocked slugger Prince Fielder is enticing to Rangers", and in doing so offered a possible solution for how Texas could sign Fielder and also ink center fielder Josh Hamilton to a long-term deal. The proposed deals were posted in another article today entitled, "How the Rangers could ink Josh Hamilton and Prince Fielder to long-term deals." The contract he proposes for Fielder is an 8-year deal with 6-years guaranteed which includes a player opt-out after four years and a team opt-out after five. You can read the details HERE.

0 recs  |  29 comments

Comments

Bowden says (*)

that he hears the Rangers are low-balling Darvish something awful. I am beginning to suspect that they are really looking to grab Prince instead of Darvish.

(*) all disclaimers apply.

Can't imagine they'd do all that scouting make a ridiculously high bid and then not get a deal done...

But when I read Darvish wants $100M over 5 years, I definitely start to wonder (and when i read that yesterday, it wasn’t the first time, rumors out of Japan earlier this winter said the same). The 5-year/$75M dollar chatter seemed a little more reasonable though a heck of a lot of money. Who do those Rangers think they are with the big tv deal and playoff revenues and full stadium…

I agree

I think they come to a deal with Yu, but not until the deadline. Everything from now til then is just posturing.

Unless it was a chance to block others?

You dont end up paying anything if the player doesn’t agree. So it might have been a chance of – we’ll outlay $xm – and if he doesnt take it then no one else is getting him either.
So in essence the Rangers haven’t paid anything for Darvish outside some scouting trips if he doesnt agree.

Yeah that's my thinking

It could have been their play all along. Heck, they may have even told Boras as much.

one of those things where the leverage is all with the bidding team

They could be as harsh to the player as they like…either he takes it or goes back to Japan.

Don't lose faith brotherman!

Darvish and the Rangers will come to a deal. They need pitching more than they need more offense. Right now the starters they have penciled in are Lewis, Holland, Hellickson, and Feliz. They could opt to move Ogando to the rotation as well, but I think he is most effective as a swingman. Darvish will sign, it’s just a matter of sorting out the money and a low ball offer is a good foot print on starting negotiations. Darvish will reject the low offer and the Rangers will counterbid. Even the Yanks did this and stole Tex from us. Difference here is that the Rangers and Yu know that Yu’s side has less leverage because going back to Japan is probably something he doesn’t want to do, leaving Nippon without the 51.7M.

I'd like to see Prince not get the deal he and Boras wants

Not because of Prince, but because I’d just like to see Boras respond to failure in some context.

But thats just me. I’d like to see prices come down a bit. 8 years 200 mil. is SO MUCH MONEY!

But, 28-36 has some prime baseball years, it’ll be interesting to see how the big guy does in the long run.

I don't like the every other year .800s OPS thing.
I think good protection and his ever vigilant batting eye will keep his numbers up

last year his BB/K ratio was over 1. That is pretty darn impressive.

The way I see it

I wouldn’t be disappointed if Fielder doesn’t sign with the Nats, especially if it means the chances for re-signing Zimmerman and others to a long-term extension go up.

Signing him to a reasonable buyer-friendly contract means they can contend immediately. Not signing him would probably lead to another “on the rise” year sort of like the last two, but with the chances of truly contending in 2013 solidified if they can manage to get the free agent CF-leadoff bat they’ve been looking for for so long.

Of course, saying all this now simply feels like I’m regurgitating the general consensus among a good number of Nats fans as it stands.

Considering the influx of revenue coming in within the next few years

There should be no monetary reason why the Nats can’t resign Zimmerman. I do agree in that many fans are on the fence. I think the team needs to go for it and push for a win now. Given the talent the team would have by ADDING Fielder and not having to subtract someone now allows for revenue growth and attendance increases so one would assume that signing anyone in the future wouldn’t be a big deal compared to money coming in.

What numbers are you looking at?

I don’t think anyone that actually knows the Nationals payroll plans would be advantaged by talking about it. However, Zuckerman did a nice job of guesswork to give us some frame of reference about 2014 without Prince or Zimm:

2014 PAYROLL
ALREADY SIGNED
Jayson Werth $20,000,000
Bryce Harper $2,150,000+
Anthony Rendon $500,000*
Matt Purke $500,000*
TOTAL $23,150,000*

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE
Gio Gonzalez $10,000,000*
Stephen Strasburg $8,000,000*
Jordan Zimmermann $7,500,000*
Drew Storen $7,000,000*
Tyler Clippard $5,000,000*
Ian Desmond $5,000,000*
Danny Espinosa $3,000,000*
Wilson Ramos $3,000,000*
Ross Detwiler $2,500,000*
Henry Rodriguez $1,500,000*
Roger Bernadina $1,500,000*
Ryan Perry $1,000,000*
TOTAL $55,000,000*
’14 TOTAL SIGNED+ARB $88,150,000*

Now, obviously, this involves a great deal of guesswork, and likely we would be under that list by some amount as some of the fringe players might be non-tendered. However, there are only 16 players on that list. Even if we filled the 7 other slots not occupied by Zim and Fielder with league minimum players, you owe another $3.5 million, so I’m going to call $88 million the baseline. Signing Fielder and Zimm would be adding $40+ million to this salary, or giving us a salary of $128 million or roughly double the payroll in 2011 ($ 63,856,928). Now, the Nationals might actually be able to afford to be among the top 5 payrolls in baseball, but I think it is a reasonable to question to question if that can happen. And if it does, will be still be able to afford other free agents to meet other needs; like the CF that doesn’t appear on that list?

According Ken Rosenthal, the Nationals new TV deal could be worth up to triple the current $29 million. Assuming this is correct, then we could spend an additional, $58 million, so you would with $7-8 million, which is problably close enough to right. However, Rosenthal’s source also says that the contract could be worth only double the $29 million, in which case you would need another about $40 million or so to make the new payroll.

Or you extend Zim's contract beyond Fielder's

And backload it so you’re not paying three mega-$$ contracts at the same time.

yep

and do the same with the key arbitration eligibles – none of whom would go to arbitration if you have the chance. All of whom you would look to sign to backend deals.

It can work but I think the missing ingredient is what the ownership is willing to take. I also think that revenues are likely to be higher in 2014 either through much increased attendance and merchandise as the team becomes a winner.

I'm not sure how that would work.

Unless you are talking some Bobby Bonilla backloading, which I think would be a mistake. Additionally, signing several long-term extensions could also be problematic if they end up injured.

Given that Fielder and Zimm are going to sign contracts within a year or so of year other, I am not sure how much budgetary tricks are going to help. Also, 2015 looks even worse for payroll.

Some of these projected salaries seem awfully inflated.

e.g. Storen. It will be his fifth year, his fourth as more or less a full time closer. He is projected here to make $7M. Another player one could argue to be similar to Storen is Matt Capps. He made $3.5 his fifth year.

I’d probably put Espi more in the $2.5M range, and Desmond around $4M. A million here and a half million there, and you are talking some big bucks.

Anyway, $128M (even if it was accurate) would be just the sixth-largest this season, probably 8th-largest in 2014. That’s not in any way out of bounds for a region like DC, for a team that got a sweet deal on a shiny new park in an area that will begin developing soon (to the team owner’s financial benefit). Certainly if Philly can afford their payroll, the Nats could afford the $140M range if they had to.

certainly so

If the Nats banked their early years profits when they made money and had no payroll to speak of – so they should be cash heavy. These things arent always year in year things. The Nats have been one of the more profitable teams for years (i think)

Very much agreed

These seem to be high end numbers and don’t take into consideration what we don’t like to think, that some of these guys will just not continue to project/perform.
A good analysis, though, in that it makes you add it up. Fun reporting.

Yes, I agree some of the numbers are inflated, however, there are atleast 7 open slots some of which will be filled with more expensive free agents (even if still cheap).

Furthermore, I am not saying that the Nationals can’t afford this. The truth of the matter is that we have no idea. Mezza thinks the Nationals have a treasure hoard from their years of cheap payrolls, maybe so. Maybe the Lerner’s will throw in an extra $$$ to soak up some of the biggest years. Maybe the Nationals can have a $140 million payroll, but I know plenty of teams that can’t. So, it is reasonable to consider the impact of signing Fielder on the ability to keep other players long term. Perhaps the most important consideration.

This i

some nice research, and a nice looking team on paper.

That contract...........

looks real nice. The NATS could be out at 4-5-6 years.

ah

just typed 2000 comment and it erased right before I could post LOL

Rangers

IMHO I don’t think Rangers can come close to what we can offer Prince..bc Rangers won’t pass $130mil for Fielder If they can’t sign Yu..plus..they have josh Hamilton and napoli due next year..that’s at least combined contracts north of 225million id imagine..Boras wants a Teixera contract for Fielder and I think he’s better then Teixera and worth at least the same contract..The Lerners are richer then the Steinbrenners of the Yanks..we can afford prince and our own players in the future…if tigers get garza and madson now goin to reds..we can’t lose this opportunity to strengthen our chances to contend..we need Fielder..forget all this chatter of Laroche .. we need to sign him before we lose out

FWIW, I think Fielder is equivalent to Texeira at the time Tex signed his contract, not better

Fielder is better offensively than Tex was at the time (but not as much as you think; remember that for this analysis his “down” year of “only” 39 HRs don’t matter), but Texeira was/is much better defensively. Because 1b is an offense-first position, I view them as more or less equivalent.

LA

Dodgers just sold the team..buster olneys writing how they should sign prince now..could they?

I think Olney is doing Boras a favor

For one thing, the team is in receivership; I’m not sure whether the transaction would have to be approved by the court or not, or possibly even by MLB. The team is overloaded with debt already, and I am very skeptical that signing Fielder truly adds value to the franchise. The Dodgers would be a good candidate once their new owners are in – but that won’t happen until possibly well into the season.

I am skeptical that the Nationals will land Fielder. I’d be willing to lay money that the Dodgers aren’t where he ends up when all the dust clears.

so where

I’f your skeptical then where will he land

I don't know where he WILL land; heck, it's possible he ends up in Nats Town

At this point I’d say the likeliest locations are Texas or Toronto, with Seattle in there if he decides to just go for the money. And don’t count Milwaukee out completely either.

Given the uncertainties, I’m not willing to bet on any particular place that he will land. I remain, however, willing to bet against the Dodgers :-)

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